Wednesday, March 9, 2011

NL East Preview/Prediction

Ahh...winter is letting go of its grip on southeastern Pennsylvania, it's starting to get warmer, and daylight savings time starts again on Sunday morning at 2 a.m. This can only mean one thing, baseball is getting closer. Only 22 days until March 31 and the official start of baseball season, cannot wait for it.  I will be posting new preview blogs for the National League and then the American League about two a week until opening day.  I will begin in the National League East, where most folks heart lies as far as their favorite team around here. These blogs will follow essentially a basic format of this: the team's biggest acquisition, team's biggest loss, and a preview for the team.  Plus, I will be going in reverse order of finish, last to first as far as my predictions go. Now, on to the preview, starting with the Washington Nationals


Washington Nationals

Biggest addition: Jayson Werth, the biggest overspend in the history of free agency in most folks minds. He signed a seven-year, $126 million dollar deal. Werth will be 39 by the time the deal is done, and he did it for the money, no matter what anyone else says.

Biggest departure: Adam Dunn, their starting first baseman bolted for the White Sox after putting up his seventh consecutive year of 35 or more home runs. Dunn signed a four-year $56 million dollar contract with the Sox to be their designated hitter/part time first baseman.

The Nationals are building towards the future. They will try to bring in some free agents to complement parts and bring in veteran leadership.  Case in point is Werth, as they do not really have a suitable option in the minors yet, so they brought in Werth. Washington also has some good young players with Nyjer Morgan in center, Wilson Ramos, who they got from Minnesota in exchange for Matt Capps is going to be their catcher of the future, Ian Desmond will be a fine shortstop, and the face of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman at third. So, they got good players at those positions who play fine defense and put up solid offensive statistics every year. The problem with the Nationals is that they do not have any pitching. Their pitching rotation is horriffic, with John Lannan and Livan Hernandez as your ace and second pitcher is not going to cut it. One Stephen Strasburg comes back next year, they should be getting better, but this year is another last place finish.

New York Mets

Biggest addition: manager Terry Collins. The Mets roster itself did not have much turnover as far as the starting lineup or starting pitching or closer is concerned, so this has to be their biggest addition. Collins takes over for the fired Jerry Manuel, who only lasted two and a half seasons before he was fired. Collins has not been a manager in the majors for over a decade, so it's an interesting hire to say the least.

Biggest subtraction: Rod Barajas, not that big of a loss, but he was the Mets opening day starter last season, so it is definitely worth noting.

The Mets are in financial shambles thanks to Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme, as the Mets have had to get multi-million dollar loans just to run the team.  New York is also plagued by injuries a lot, so if your a Mets fan and Memorial Day rolls around and the Mets are in first place, it's a passing thing most likely.  If the Mets could stay healthy for any length of time, they would be a force to contend with in the division, as it is, they will probably be looking to dump payroll by the time the trade deadline approaches.

Florida Marlins

Biggest addition:  Javier Vasquez, while Vasquez was sub par with the Yankees, he should perform a lot better in a place where not a whole lot of fans care about the baseball team.  Plus, if you go back two years ago, when Vasquez was with the Braves, he had a 15-10 record, and had a 2.87 ERA for the season. If the Marlins can get that type of production out of their fourth starter, they should be ok with Vasquez for a one-year deal.

Biggest subtraction: Dan Uggla, who they traded away to the rival Braves.  Uggla was not about to get as big as an extension as he would have liked from the Marlins, so they traded him to the Braves, where he got a five year extension. Uggla is a big loss for Florida, as he was a big bopper in the middle of the lineup, and could hit a lot of homers in Sun Life Stadium, normally a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Florida has a dynamite young team, as five of the eight starting positions are being filled by players with less than two years experience.  The Marlins have a really good young lineup, and they are very solid up the middle, where you want to be.  Another big free agent they brought in was John Buck, an all-star with the Blue Jays last year who will be their starting catcher, then a very good starting staff, led by workhorse Josh Johnson, who went head-to-head with Roy Halladay last year, and nearly beat Halladay during his perfect game.  Then at shortstop, you have arguably the best one in the game, with Hanley Ramirez who will put up a guaranteed .300 average, and has the capability to hit 35 homers.  At second, they have a solid one with Omar Infante, one of the guys they got back from Atlanta for Uggla. Finally, in center, they have 2009 Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan.  Finally, the Marlins have a good bullpen, with closer Leo Nunez. If the Marlins can get it all together, they have a very good shot to win the wild card, maybe even the division. As it is though, I'll say wait until next year, when they are in their new ballpark.

Atlanta Braves

Biggest addition: Uggla, who replaces the fine Martin Prado as the everyday second baseman, while Prado moves to the outfield.  Uggla will bring some much needed power to the lineup and provide protection for Brian McCann, the only true power in the lineup.

Biggest subtraction: it is hard to place this on anyone but Bobby Cox, the Braves manager for the past 20 seasons.  Every single person in the clubhouse loved playing for Bobby, and he brought a sense of calness and regularity to a clubhouse, which doesn't normally experience it.

While Cox may be gone as manager, the Braves were quick to jump on Fredi Gonzalez, the Braves former third base coach, and the Marlins former manager to come in and take over.  Gonzalez has tried to keep Cox as close to the club as possible during spring training, and has tried to keep everything the same as it ever has been.  Atlanta is very solid all around, with very few question marks surrounding the team.  The three biggest question marks are the following: closer, outfield, and the corner infield positions.  First, to start with the closer, and the favorite seems to be power pitcher Craig Kimbrel, who was great last season setting up for the now retired Billy Wagner.  Kimbrel had a 0 ERA post all-star break last season, and should be suited to settle into the closer role.  Second question is the outfield.  Prado is moving to a position he never played before in left, Nate McLouth had a horrible season last year and was even demoted to AAA Gwinnett, and will jason Heyward have a sophomore slump? Heyward was the NL ROY runner-up last season to Buster Posey, so he should be fine. McLouth looks to rebound and even had a ok August and September last season, when he was called back up. Then Prado, who is coming off a hip pointer injury and adjusting to the outfield from the infield.  He has handled everything well enough coming into the season, now can it crossover into the regular season.  Finally, the corner infield spots.  Freddie Freeman will be the starting first baseman, and there is always a question of whether or not the rookies can cut the mustard so to speak in the majors.  Then, at third, Chipper Jones, the face of the franchise for the past 15 seasons, is coming off a torn ACL, and can he come back and be a good third baseman so quickly in this, his probable last season?

Philadelphia Phillies

Biggest addition: Cliff Lee. Everyone in and around the city of brotherly love was saying Merry Cliffmas when he arrived just before Christmas in Philadelphia.  Lee, who was inexplicably traded before the 2009 season to  make room for Roy Halladay, really enjoyed his brief tenure with the Phillies in 2009, leading them to the 2009 World Series that he wanted to come back and hopefully lead this team to its second World Series title in four years.

Biggest subtraction:  Werth, who was the right-handed power in the lineup that was filled with left handed bombers in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.  Plus, now there is a huge void in right field, which will be filled by the still largely unproven Ben Francisco.

Philadelphia fans and "experts" alike, including me are praising the four "ace" pitchers the Phillies have, along with a not so bad fifth in Joe Blanton.  This starting staff is probably the best in baseball, although arguments can be made for the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, and Boston Red Sox.  While this rotation on paper looks amazing, allow us all to remember that they can't pitch perfect games every single time out.  This lineup is aging, and no starting pitcher or fielder is younger than 28 to begin the season.  There are many questions, including whether or not Chase Utley's knee is going to bother him for most of the season.  While there are many questions, it is safe to say that the Phillies are still the class of the NL East, no matter what.

Check back on Saturday night/Sunday morning for my NL Central preview. Will the Reds repeat? How will the top four teams sort out between the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, and Cubs? Finally, check out my ESPN tournament challenge bracket challenge in time for the tournament, which begins on Tuesday. I'll also have a preview/prediction of my final four come Sunday when the brackets are revealed.

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