Friday, April 30, 2010

NHL Semifinal Picks

Sorry for the delay in picking and analyzing. First, I had no idea the semifinals were starting Thursday night. NHL really needs to step it up with promotions to get folks to tune in. But, also apologies for the not analyzing part, was out tonight when I was going to post it.

Picks: DET over SJ in 7. Detroit is very hot right now and San Jose, while they may be amazing in the regular season, always seem to blow it in the playoffs. I don't see that trend stopping.

CHI over VAN in 6. Chicago was my western conference pick preseason and I see no reason to change that pick. But, this will be an excellent series featuring prominent scoring by the Sedin brothers and Kane and Toews.

BOS over PHI in 7. While Philly may have blazed past the Devils in the first round, they also lost three key players in their offense: Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, and Ian Laperriere. Plus, there is no way Brian Boucher can keep playing out of his mind. Then, Boston has Savard, their captain back, which should help an anemic offense.

PIT over MON in 5. Pittsburgh overmatches Montreal in every category. Plus, Montreal went down 3-1 to the Caps who have no idea how to close out a series. (Since '85, the Caps are 1-8 in series they were up 2-0 or 3-1 in.) But, I'll give Montreal a game at home if they play defense and Halak plays amazing in net.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Roethlisberger suspension thoughts

As you may or may not know by now, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been suspended by the NFL for six games to start the season. He was suspended because of not one but two accusations within the past year of sexually assaulting young women. He also put himself in danger a few years ago when he crashed his motorcycle while without wearing a helmet which cost the Steelers dearly in trying to defend their fifth Super Bowl title.
What are my thoughts? I think the suspension was a bit too harsh, considering that Mike Vick only got two games after coming out of jail for animal abuse, and other folks have gotten lesser suspensions for crimes they were actually charged for. Roethlisberger has never actually been charged with anything. I think it does send a message to the rest of the league and it's players though. The league is saying that they will not tolerate anything, and you must not get into any trouble with the law of any kind. This suspension is detrimental to the Steelers hopes of returning to the playoffs, as I think they will go no better than 3-3 while Roethlisberger is on this suspension.
The Steelers also should think about trading Roethlisberger to a team like the Raiders who would be thrilled to get a player of his talent. Plus, the Raiders are the castoffs of the league anyway. People go there because no other team will and Al Davis doesn't really care.
Overall, I think it was harsh, but it sent a big message to Roethlisberger and the league as a whole.

NFL Rant/Draft mini preview

Ahh...those three letters invoke serious heart palpitations from many folks, they invoke the notion of football, they invoke thoughts of your favorite team and who they may be playing and drafting this upcoming season, and how those folks will do.
For me, like any other sports aficionado, I love the NFL, it brings folks together on Sunday afternoons after church to relax and cheer on their favorite team, I think it's great. BUT, with the NFL schedule being released and the NFL Network and ESPN having nearly 8 hours of coverage on that alone, and the draft being moved to primetime and being spread out over three days, I wonder something. That something is, is the NFL becoming too big?
My answer is yes. Here is why: they have the biggest television ratings every year, they are becoming a year round type of story, they're taking attention away from the other sports, and next year, what if there is no NFL?.
The TV ratings I can live with, as I know the NFL is big and people love their football, and gambling on it. (I don't necessarily care if you gamble, just don't make it your life's obsession or you'll get burned. I know from experience.)
Then, even though they only play up to 25 times in a calendar year, everything is scrutinized. And even 25 is the absolute MAX any team can play, when including preseason and postseason.
But, with the scrutinization each team faces over their every move, it's ridiculous, because the amount of talking way exceeds the amount of playing any team does. It should only come down to an hour before the game, seeing some matchups and seeing who you think will win and giving a good analysis of the game to a half hour afterwards and see what your team did wrong and what it did right. Then maybe you can talk about the game at work or something. But, to ask hey how do you think Ernie Sims is going to do in Philly? It doesn't really make a whole lot of sense, espescially since I never even heard of Sims before he came to Philly.
The other sports are getting more attention derived away from them too, as right now, the NHL and NBA playoffs are going on. The sad part about it is most folks will watch the draft rather than watch something better on TV or a movie with their family, or even spend time with them, or watch the NHL or NBA playoffs. Those things are way more important in the present than to see who your team drafted in the first round. Go out and pick up your local paper to find that out in the morning. Watch the playoffs and see amazing plays, instead of seeing people walk in suits and get presented a jersey.
Finally, with the NFL possibly becoming a locked out league after this season, what will happen to it? Will folks come back? There are still folks who haven't come back to baseball since they went on strike in 1994, hockey fans were enraged that an entire season got wiped out in 2004-05, and they may not come back. What will NFL fans do? Probably come back in droves. But, I consider college football to be the benefactor of it all. They'll get more casual fans from the NFL and the folks who play that, most do it for the fun of the game. Which is great, not for money or sponsorships, just because they love the game.
Some things to think about as the NFL prepares for it's 75th draft this year.

This is a mini preview, thoughts on where Tim Tebow will go as far as team and round, who should the Rams take first, and what the Eagles need most, and who they'll pick.
First, Tebow. Tebow is pretty much an enigma when all the water boils off. He was a great college quarterback who helped Florida win 2 national titles, and he became the first sophomore ever to win the Heisman. But, is he a true quarterback you want for your team down the road? Probably not. Granted, he has worked incredibly hard at getting his mechanics fixed, but can he do it in a real game? I don't know, maybe God will allow him to get everything correct and he'll lead the team to the Super Bowl. I think he'll be a Kordell Stewart type of guy, where he first emerges as an anything type guy. Tight end, wide receiver, running back, fullback, quarterback doing anything he can to help his team win. Then, he'll eventually transform himself into a fine quarterback who will make a pro bowl or two. Where will he go? I say second round to the Vikings. the Vikings have Favre and Tavaris Jackson as their quarterbacks, and I think he'll make them a better team, which is scary.
Secondly, the Rams. Even though the Rams have been giving every indication they will take Sam Bradford first and make him their franchise quarterback, they shouldn't. He gets into many collisions, doesn't slide, and doesn't know how to fall when taking a hit. I think the shoulder injuries he suffered are going to recur in the NFL. Plus, he is a good quarterback with a "pro style" offense at Oklahoma, but I just don't see him to be a can't miss type of guy like a Manning or a Rivers. They should take Ndamokung Suh, who just dominated the Big 12 championship game and almost singlehandedly had Nebraska win that game. Suh I think is that type of can't miss. He is a defensive lineman who will put up better than Albert Haynesworth numbers and will make all of the front seven better.
Finally, the Eagles. I think the Eagles should try and get Taylor Mays the safety out of USC, who is second to Eric Berry in everything safety wise, and he's being compared to Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed, some high praise. Mays hopefully will bring a Brian Dawkins type play to the free safety position and make it a strong point once again for the Eagles.

P.S. I apologize for not putting up a NHL preview blog. But, here's who I would've picked: West: SJ in 6, CHI in 6, LA in 7, DET in 5. East: WSH in 5, NJ in 6, BUF in 7, PIT in 5. I promise I'll put up a comprehensive preview of the semifinal round.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

Donovan McNabb trade

OK, after what seemed like months of speculating of where Donovan McNabb would be traded, it finally happened. The Eagles started entertaining offers back in February, and there were some teams thrown out there like the Raiders or the Bills, or possibly even the Jaguars or Broncos. But, it was never mentioned to trade him to division rival Washington Redskins. It makes zero sense to me to trade him to a division rival! Donovan will probably destroy the Eagles in the two games he plays against them for the next 5-6 years. Granted, the Eagles were classy in that they wanted to trade Donovan to a winner or potential to be a winner. That is why the Eagles traded McNabb to the Raiders or Bills.
The Skins offered the best package for the Eagles as far as draft picks and the Eagles wanted to appease Donovan in where he went. That is what made the Eagles classy. Philadelphia wanted to appease Donovan to go to a place where both sides would be happy. That's why the Eagles traded McNabb to the Skins.
Overlooking the past decade as the Eagles starting quarterback, McNabb was the man as far as consistency. You could essentially pencil in 9-12 wins per season and a trip to the playoffs nearly every season. But, the one thing you could also pencil in was a loss in the playoffs somewhere along the line. McNabb has gotten the reputation as a choker in the playoffs for that reason.
McNabb was amazing as the Eagles quarterback during the regular season though. He broke all passing records even with a cast of wide receivers such as Greg Lewis, James Thrash, Freddie Mitchell, and Kevin Curtis throughout his career. He had one season with Terrell Owens which produced memorable results in 2004 and also in 2009 he had probably his best core of receivers and had another pro bowl season.
But, as with all good things, they must come to an end. I think that it will be good for both McNabb and the Eagles to move on. I think Donovan will put up another pro bowl caliber season for the Redskins, and will play for them until 2014 when he retires. The Eagles will also see what their "quarterback of the future" Kevin Kolb really looks like in an entire 16 game season. I think Kolb will do fine, and lead the Eagles to the playoffs once again. But, he won't lead the Eagles to that elusive Super Bowl victory.

AL and NL West division previews/predictions

As I am sitting watching the Boston Red Sox-New York Yankees game, it's getting my so pumped up to write this blog and preview probably the hardest divisions to pick in all of baseball.


AL West


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim


Who's in: DH Hideki Matsui, SP Joel Pinerio, RP Fernando Rodney, RP Brian Stokes


Who's out: 3B Chone Figgins, DH Vladimir Guerrero, SP John Lackey, OF Gary Matthews Jr., RP Darren Oliver, RP Justin Speier, RP Jose Arredondo


First, I think this is probably the dumbest name in all of sports, name yourselves the California Angels, L.A. Angels or Anaheim Angels, not this atrosity of a name.

Anyway, looking at this team, there is nothing which really spark you as they are incredibly good in this area or incredibly bad in another, they are just so incredibly balanced all around, and they have so much depth in all areas, that it's hard to go against them in the regular season. Granted, the postseason is a different story, and we'll get to that in October.

The manager, Mike Scoscia is probably the best in the majors of getting the most out of what he has to work with. He consistently wins about 90 games per season, and I'm baffled every year by it, but he is just that good.

The Angels lineup is built around speed, with a little bit of power sprinkled in. The speed comes from everywher but first base and the catcher spot basically, where each person is capable of stealing 20 bases this season. The power is sprinkled in via Kendry Morales, who had 36 HRs and over 100 RBI as season. Then, there is Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu who can combine for 50 HRs and 170 RBI, which is pretty good. Los Angeles is relatively young as well, which is also terriffic, as they can continue to develop these players and help them reach their full potential. Plus, it helps with range for defense, as the Angels are normally always near the bottom of the league in errors, and near the top in defensive fielding percentage, as they love to work on fundamentals year round.

Starting pitching is normally a strenth for the Angels and should be again this year, as even though they lost their ace in John Lackey, they have a very capable fill in with Jered Weaver, who won 16 games last year. Then, they signed one of the Cardinals "big three" from last year, Joel Pinerio, who should be plugged into the second spot, and perform very well, say 15-8, with a 4.3 ERA in 30 starts. They have three other all-stars to close out the rotation in Scott Kazmir, who was acquired last year late from Tampa Bay, and should continue to perform well. The others are Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, who should also perform very well.

Finally, the bullpen should be just fine again with Brian Fuentes closing it out again, who led the AL with 48 saves and then they got Tigers closer Fernando Rodney, who will be the set-up man and backup closer, just in case Fuentes struggles.


Prediction: 1st


Seattle Mariners


Who's in: SP Cliff Lee, 3B Chone Figgins, LF Milton Bradley, RP Brandon League, OF Eric Byrnes, C Josh Bard, RP Kanekoa Texeria


Who's out: 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Russell Branyan, UTIL Bill Hall, C Kenji Johjima, RP/SP Carlos Silva, RP Chris Jakubauskas, OF Endy Chavez


After an 85 win season last year where the M's were in the playoff hunt until the final two weeks of the season, when they were mathematically eliminated. The Mariners are hoping to contend more this season, with the additions of Lee and Figgins being added to the mix.

The lineup looks solid, mostly the same as Los Angeles', with a good mix of speed and power, leaning a little bit more towards speed. The power comes from Figgins and Bradley, who hope to drive in the speed and on base potential of the top of the order with mainstay Ichiro, who is consistently hitting .300 and getting 30 steals a season. Then, they have Jack Wilson, acquired from the Pirates should provide very good defense at short. They also have speedster Franklin Gutierrerez in center, who will cover a lot of ground, and should steal a lot of bases. The defense all around looks to be solid as well, with the only really questionable fielder being Bradley, who isn't that great of a fielder.

Pitching is the biggest question mark for this team, as there are big questions behind co-aces Felix Hernandez and Lee. Will Ian Snell become Ian Smell again? Then, there is Ryan Rowland-Smith, who is a virtual unknown to most of baseball, how will he perform? Finally, the fifth starter's spot belongs to Jason Vargas, and I've got no idea how he will perform.

Then, the closer spot belongs to David Aardsma, who came out of nowhere to save 38 games last year, hopefully he can do the same job this year.

If everything comes together, this can be a dangerous team, and possibly win the division, which is quite possible. If not, and the back end of the rotation stumbles, they'll be fighting with the A's for last place.


Prediction: 2nd


Texas Rangers


Who's in: DH Vladimir Guerrero, RP Chris Ray, RP Darren Oliver, RP Clay Rapada, OF Endy Chavez, C Matt Treanor, UTIL Georgio Petit


Who's out: SP Kevin Millwood,C Ivan Rodriguez,SS Omar Vizquel,OF Andruw Jones,RP Eddie Guardado, OF Marlon Byrd, UTIL Joe Inglett, RP Joaquin Benoit, 1B/DH Hank Blalock, SP Jason Jennings

Texas has some high hopes for this season, and rightly so, as they have been improving ever since 2006. The Rangers have some very good, young players in house, including some players in the Mark Teixeria deal with the Atlanta Braves. Two of those players, Jarrod Satalamacchia and Elvis Andrus are burgeoning superstars. Andrus finished the season with 33 stolen bases and then Saltalamacchia is starting to come back from surgery last season, but I believe he will be a Joe Mauer type star behind the plate. Then, they have two other established stars in Ian Kinsler and Michael Young at second and third, who play great defense, and are easily 20 homer, 80 RBI guys each year. The outfield has two good power hitters in Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton, providing Hamilton stays healthy. Then, there is speed with Julio Borbon, who can steal 60 bases in a year.
The Rangers pitching is the big question mark though, with the oft-injured Rich Harden being signed to be the ace of the staff and replace the consistent Millwood. Then, there is Scott Feldman, who won 17 games for them last year, and they are hoping to do the same. Following those two guys, it's much the same as the M's, you have no idea what is going to happen. Then, the bullpen has some good pitchers in it though, with Frank Francisco being penned in as the team's closer and then they have Neftali Perez, also acquired in the Teixeria deal being a set up guy along with Ray, who should do fine.
The offense and bullpen are going to be fine, it's just the starting pitching which has me concerned to pick them to win the division or anything.

Prediction: 3rd

Oakland Athletics

Who's in:
SP Ben Sheets , OF Coco Crisp, OF Jake Fox , 2B Aaron Miles

Who's Out:
1B Bobby Crosby,1B Nomar Garciaparra,OF Scott Hairston , OF Aaron Cunningham,2B Adam Kennedy, RP Santiago Casilla, RP Jeff Gray

The A's seem to be in constant rebuilding mode, and for that reason, they have been slightly worse than .500 since winning the division in 2005.
Oakland did get a find last year in Rookie of the Year closer Andrew Bailey, who saved 26 games, and should do better this season. Behind Bailey, they have former closer Joey Devine, who is coming off Tommy John surgery, and should perform fine.
The starting pitching has question marks all over the place, starting with ace Ben Sheets, also coming off Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2009 season to recover. How will he do? Then, there is Dallas Braden who was injured during the spring, will he be ok? After him is Trevor Cahill, who compiled 10 wins last year in his rookie campaign, will he duplicate that or get better? Justin Duchsherer is coming in like Sheets missing the entire 2009 season, how will he do? Will he perform to his all-star capabilities? Too many questions surround the starting rotation for me to trust it at all.
The defense for Oakland should be fine, with plenty of speed and being fundamentally sound. The offense concerns me though, as there is virtually no power in the lineup, with the only person having potential for 30 homers being Kevin Kouzmanoff, acquired in the offseason from the Padres. I'm just not sold on this being a great offensive team.

Prediction: 4th

NL West

With this division, much like in the AL, I could essentially roll dice and pick one of four teams to win the division. I've seen picks from Colorado to Arizona to San Francisco to Los Angeles for winning the division. I personally have no clue who to pick, but I do know that any 4 of those teams will not go far in the playoffs and lose in the NLDS. I will leave this one up to you though. All I know for sure is that the San Diego Padres, as beautiful as their ballpark is, the team they put out there will not be very good.

Next: an NHL playoffs preview/predictions

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Men's and Women's Final Four predictions

The tournaments will come to an end on Tuesday night, and for me, I have grown tired of basketball and basketball talk the past few weeks and am concentrating solely on baseball and hockey for the rest of it. But, I will refer you, faithful readers to my good friend Jason's blog for the men's final four preview and predictions at thefroshfifteen.blogspot.com. As I happen to agree with his picks for each of the three games this weekend in the men's final four.

As for the women, my final four predictions are as follows: Stanford over Oklahoma and UConn over Baylor, with UConn winning it all. Everyone knows UConn will win it all as well, but still, most people don't talk about it just because it is occurring in the women's game. Give these young women and Geno Auriemma credit for demolishing each team that comes their way like a bulldozer would a building. It's absolutely insane how good this team is too. Give them so much credit.