The National League Central is incredibly top-heavy. Now, what I mean by that is that the bottom two teams, the Pirates and Astros have zero realistic shot of winning the division, or having a winning record for that matter. Whereas the top four teams in the division, the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all have a realistic chance of winning the division and possibly the World Series. It's just a matter of which team plays the best and doesn't have many injuries to go along with that. But, as mentioned in the NL East blog, I will go from last to first as far as predictions go. Then, each time I will have their biggest addition, biggest loss, and a little preview about each team.
Houston Astros
Biggest addition: Bill Hall, the journeyman utility player signed a one year deal with the Astros to be their regular starting second baseman. Hall pretty much will provide adequate defense and give you about 20-25 homers with a .275-.300 average throughout the season.
Biggest loss: Geoff Blum. Blum was the Astros starting third baseman on opening day last season. Hall will provide what Blum did, only Hall will provide it at second base. So, overall they aren't losing too much.
Houston is beginning a rebuilding process, which will take them a few years to get back into the playoff picture. Houston has very few recognizable pieces, now that they started full fledged rebuilding mode last season when they traded away their two most recognizable faces in Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. Now, the Astros have two or three recognizable names in Carlos Lee, which they will be thankful when his contract expires. Brett Myers, who had a surprising first year in Houston, putting up very respectable numbers last year, going 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA. Finally J.A. Happ, which the Astros got from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt trade. Happ is a good young lefty, who has the promise to be a good number two starter in a rotation someday. Happ will get that chance in Houston to prove himself. give the Astros about two or three years for them to be close to contention for a playoff berth again.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Biggest addition: Lyle Overbay. Overbay will hopefully be trade bait for another team, as the Pirates hope that some team needs a first baseman around the time of the trade deadline. Pittsburgh will use Overbay for as long as they can, and Overbay will provide adequate offense, providing about 35 doubles and 20 homers for an entire season. Anything else is gravy for the Bucs.
Biggest loss: Zach Duke. Duke isn't much of a loss, but for what it's worth, Duke was the Pirates opening day starter last season. Duke was not very good at all last season, and he was subsequently traded to Arizona during the offseason.
Sorry whatever Pirates fans are left, but you will again face another losing season, continuing your streak of futility, and this will be the 19th consecutive season that the city of Pittsburgh will not have a winning baseball team. But, there is reason for hope. The offense is filled with young players who are actually good. The face of the franchise is Andrew McCutchen, the star center fielder who is a speedster, and can show flashes of power from time to time. Then, at third base there is Pedro Alvarez, who is capable of being a 30 homer, 100 RBI guy for years to come. So, there is some hope in the offense. Just do not have any hope in the pitching staff whatsoever, as that will take several years to groom and for any good pitchers to come out of the farm system.
Chicago Cubs
Biggest addition: Matt Garza. Garza was surprisingly traded to the Cubs from the Rays in the offseason, as most though Garza would stay in Tampa. Garza is a capable number two pitcher in the Cubs rotation behind the always volatile Carlos Zambrano. Garza should fit well within the Cubs system, as he is primarily a ground ball pitcher, and that will serve him well in the ffriendly confines of Wrigley Field.
Biggest loss: Derrek Lee. Although Lee was technically gone in August of last season, he is still a big loss, as Lee provided gold glove caliber defense at first base over the past few seasons. Carlos Pena will hopefully provide the type of defense that Lee provided and the Cubs hope that Pena will bat above the Mendoza line of .200 this season while still getting around 25 homers in probably Pena's only season in Chicago.
The Cubs have the talent to compete for the division title. Just can they bring back the magic they had from 2007-08 to win it again this season? The Cubs main problems are that they are very aging in the outfield, averaging about 34 years old in each of their starting spots, and that their starting pitching is rather thin outside of Zambrano and Garza. Granted, they have a consistent third starter in Ryan Dempster, who will provide 200 innings and double digit victories year after year, but is there really anyone who is good after that? They have some good young players at short with Starlin Castro, at second with Blake DeWitt, Geovanny Soto behind the plate, and consistency at third with Aramis Ramirez.
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest addition: Lance Berkman. Berkman will be the Cardinals starting right fielder. This is a very questionable signing by the Cardinals, as Berkman hasn't played regularly in the outfield since 2004. Berkman is now 35, and his offensive production has been slipping for the past few seasons. St. Louis hopes that he can rebound for at least one season and provide capable numbers.
Biggest loss: While this is not a offseason loss, it is an injury loss which is huge for the Cardinals, and this man will be lost for the entire season. The man I'm referring to is Adam Wainwright, who finished second in the National League Cy Young chase behind unanimous winner Roy Halladay.
Wainwright is by far the biggest loss for the Cardinals, as he had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Wainwright is going to be gone this entire season, and possibly part of next year. St. Louis has two things in its favor though. An amazing manager in Tony LaRussa, who has only three losing seasons in his 15 seasons as St. Louis manager. Then, there is the best player in the game, Albert Pujols who will put up his .300 average, 30 plus homers, and 100 plus RBI every year. Those two factors make St. Louis never truly out of the race for the division crown.
Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Addition: Again, this truly isn't an offseason addition, but this man is the front runner for Rookie of the Year in the National League. That man is Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. While Chapman was amazing in his first month in the big leagues, he's going to have to bump it all up over a full season. Chapman will probably be the Reds set-up man in the bullpen and he should be able to accumulate plenty of holds in preparation for 40 save man Francisco Cordero.
Biggest loss: Orlando Cabrera, the Reds starting shortstop for most of last season. Cabrera provided solid defense and adequate offense for the second position in the batting order.
While the Reds went to the playoffs for the first time since 1995 last season, they then got swept by the Phillies in the division series. Cincinatti has plenty of depth all around, but especially in pitching. The Reds have depth in both the bullpen and the starting rotation. The rotation has six capable starters, and as mentioned above, they have Chapman and Cordero in the pen. Cincy has the National League MVP in Joey Votto, who will continue to mature and grow into one of the premier first basemen in all of the majors. Cincy also has some really good players at second with Brandon Phillips who is a fine leadoff hitter and can provide great defense. Scott Rolen has turned into a pleasant surprise at third base, as he provided his usual great defense and had a sort of renaissance in Cincy, batting .285 with 20 homers and 85 RBI last season. Finally, the outfield has some good players in Laynce Nix and Jay Bruce, who are some good offensive outfielders. But, the Reds just will fall short of winning its second straight division title to believe it or not, the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest addition: Zack Greinke. Greinke, along with Shaun Marcum, are providing the Brewers with a very capable one-two punch as powerful as any in the National League. Greinke, the 2008 American League Cy Young award winner was traded to Milwaukee for some top prospects, including the Brewers starting shortstop last season, Alcides Escobar. Greinke should also provide the Brewers with only their second 15 game winner since 1994.
Biggest loss: The aforementioned Escobar, who took over for a prior all-star in J.J. Hardy. Escobar has an incredibly gifted glove, but is very light hitting. Yuniesky Bentancourt, who along with Greinke is coming over from Kansas City should be an offensive improvement over Escobar.
The Brewers have come into this season basically in a one year gamble for the World Series, as they have a big expiring contract in Prince Fielder, their star first baseman, who is capable of hitting 50 homers in a season. Milwaukee also has other key free agents coming up with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. Milwaukee also has some other question marks. Those being at catcher, as they don't really have a clue of who their starting catcher is. Another at the fifth starter, which they have no clue who will be there, and finally, will John Axford continue to be effective in his second season as the closer? Milwaukee will become the third team in three years to become the NL Central champion.
Please read my NCAA tournament preview blog, coming up in a few hours. I will tell you my final four picks, and what is new about the tournament this season. Then, next week i'll give you my NL West preview blog as well.
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