Wednesday, March 30, 2011

AL Central Preview/prediction

This division is incredibly top heavy like its counterpart in the National League. this division will be won by one of three teams: the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, or Minnesota Twins. the other two teams, the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians have zero shot of winning the division. The top three teams just have way too much talent. The top three all have their question marks though, and I'll document those when we get to the team previews.  Just a reminder, the picks will go from bottom to top of the division.

Cleveland Indians

Biggest addition: None, as the Indians didn't really make any moves over the offseason.

Biggest loss: look above.

The Indians have fallen so much in four years it's ridiculous. Ever since their collapse in the 2007 ALCS to the Boston Red Sox, the Indians have fallen off the face of the earth as far as contention goes.  Now, they are looking to rebuild with a young nucleus of players, as none of their starting players will be over the age of 28 to start the season. So, if these players perform like they are supposed to, a few years down the road, this team can perform, but for right now, look forward to a very long season Indian fans.

Kansas City Royals

Biggest addition:  Alcides Escobar. Escobar came over from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, and he should be a fine defensive shortstop for years to come, if Kansas City decides to spend the money that is.  Escobar, as a rookie last year put up mediocre numbers offensively, but will definitely help the weak Kansas City defense.

Biggest loss: Greinke. It's not easy to replace a Cy Young award winner on any team, let alone the Royals.  Kansas City got as much in return for Greinke as possible, and sent Greinke to a place where he at least has a chance to contend for the playoffs, which is a great thing.  Hopefully it can be a win-win situation for both clubs.

As mentioned above, both Kansas City and Cleveland are in the idst of rebuilding efforts. Although for Kansas City, they've been in rebuilding mode for a while now.  Their last winning season came in 2003, and that was a fluke season.  But, the Royals do have some good young prospects coming, such as slugger Mike Moustakas, who has the capability of hitting 30 homers and being a force in the middle of the Royals lineup.  the lone bright spot for the Royals, is their closer, Joakim Soria who should make another all-star appearance for Kansas City in the desert.

Chicago White Sox

Biggest addition: Adam Dunn. Dunn signed a four year deal to be the White Sox designated hitter and possibly be plugged in at first base every now and then. Dunn is a hitter, nothing more, as he is putrid in the outfield and at first base. Dunn will give even more pop to the already loaded White Sox lineup.

Biggest loss:  Bobby Jenks. Jenks was the closer in the south side for the past five seasons, and he will be missed. However, it is easier to find a star closer than it is to find a marquee starting pitcher, and the White Sox have a closer in place now with Matt Thornton, who should be fine in that role.

Chicago has not been to the playoffs since 2008, when they won the AL Central in a one game playoff over the Twins. I don;t think they make it back this year, and I can't really pinpoint a reason why. just a feeling I have I suppose.  But, they will contend for the division crown along with the Tigers and Twins, they will not be out of it until the final two weeks of the season at the earliest. Chicago's biggest question mark is whether or not Ozzie Guillen will be able to get the most out of his players, or will the act be too much after seven years in Chicago?

Detroit Tigers

Biggest addition: Victor Martinez. V-Mart as he is affectionately known brings some pop to a position which normally doesn't bring much, catcher. Martinez will probably be split between catcher and designated hitter to give his knees a rest, as he is 32, which is old for a catcher.

Biggest loss: Johnny Damon. Damon was the primary designated hitter for the Tigers last year, but he has been replaced by Martinez, so it's not a terrible loss, but it is a significant one.

Detroit has a good mix of veteran and young players. If everything came together, they can really put a run together.  They got a great mix of young starters, and none of the five are over the age of 30. Justin Verlander is the horse of the staff, and can win 20 games any given season, or a Cy young award very soon. Then, the lineup is very dangerous, with Miguel Cabrera, who in any year could make a case for MVP. Plus, in the outfield, they have two second year players in Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson. Boesch can bomb it, and Jackson has lightning speed. So, they will definitely be in contention for the division crown, but ultimately fall just a bit short. Their biggest question is whether or not their main guys of Brandon Inge, Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera can all stay healthy.

Minnesota Twins

Biggest addition: Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau. Technically not really additions, but they are from last year. Nathan is back after having Tommy John surgery and Morneau is back after suffering a concussion late last season.

Biggest loss: Orlando Hudson. Hudson was a nice offensive piece at second base, but he had his issues defensively. So, the Twins replaced Hudson with prospect Alexi Casilla, who should be a significant upgrade defensively for Minnesota.

Minnesota's biggest question marks are also their biggest additions. How will Nathan and Morneau return from their injuries? Will they return to all-star caliber or will they bust? Well, history has shown that lately, pitchers who come back from Tommy John surgery have been more explosive and have been able to bounce back quite nicely. Morneau has had ample time to rest and he should be fine, getting back to his 2006 AL MVP performance.  Minnesota also always seems to defy expectations, and win more games than they probably should, hence why I'm giving them the AL Central crown for the seventh time in a decade.

Stay tuned tomorrow for my AL West preview!

Sunday, March 27, 2011

AL East Preview/prediction

This has probably the best line of teams from top to bottom, as Baltimore is better, with Buck Showalter as manager, Toronto is always around .500, then Tampa even with all of its losses, is still going to contend because of its farm system, then of course there is the head honchos of Boston and New York with their big bucks and spending all of their money.  Again, the prediction will go from bottom to top as far as order of finish.

Baltimore Orioles

Biggest addition: Showalter. Yes, he came in at the end of last year, and he helped transform the team from something awful to something very competitive. Granted, the team wasn't playing for anything when he arrived, so it's easy to win when you don't have anything to play for.  Showalter is very motivational, and that should help, but the division is way too tough for the Orioles to make any headway.

Biggest loss: Kevin Millwood. Millwood wasn't very good last season, but he was the opening day starter last season, which says a little something.

The Orioles went out and added pieces over the offseason to try and be competitive, but as I mentioned earlier, the division is way too stacked for Baltimore to have a chance. Baltimore traded for Mark Reynolds, who will be a perfect fit, since he is a pull hitter in a hitter's park. They also upgraded their defense with Derrek Lee at first, who is a stop gap solution until the O's try to get Prince Fielder in free agency.  The Orioles also have some other good young players such as Matt Wieters behind the plate, J.J. Hardy at short, and Adam Jones in center. They'll need big stats out of these players, as the pitching is not all that good.

Toronto Blue Jays

Biggest addition:  Octavio Dotel. This is the biggest addition, as the Jays didn't really make any moves over the offseason. Dotel will be given the chance to close after Kevin Gregg departed for Baltimore. Dotel will probably be in a position like he was in Pittsburgh, a chance to close and then traded for some prospects near the trade deadline.

Biggest loss: John Buck. Buck was an all-star last season after he put up career highs in all major statistical categories.  Buck will be a  huge loss to this team's offensive punch.

Toronto, as mentioned earlier, always seems to trend around the .500 mark. Take for instance their past five years in wins: 87, 83, 86, 75, 85. So, yes, they are incredibly mediocre. They cannot seem to go higher or lower than that number, as they try to sign good, not great players in free agency while trying to develop their farm system.  Plus, with the Red Sox and Yankees keeping on spending, they can't seem to stay anywhere but in third or fourth place.

Tampa Bay Rays

Biggest addition: Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon, take your pick. Both players are aging, but they can still be incredibly productive.  Damon hit .271 last season, and Ramirez is coming off a very down year after being suspended for a violation of MLB's drug policy.  Damon will not provide anything in the way of defense in left, but he's able to do it for 140 games, which is plenty.  Ramirez will be the team's primary DH and Tampa prays he can put up numbers similar more to 2009 than 2010.

Biggest loss: Take your pick, the Rays lost their following from last season: their starting left fielder, shortstop, first baseman, designated hitter, a starting pitcher, and closer from opening day last season to this season. All of those players are gone via free agency or via trade.

Now, you may ask with all of those key pieces gone from a season ago, how do you expect the Rays to compete in this division? well, answer is simple, they draft very well.  Tampa has one of the best farm systems in all of the major leagues consistently year in and year out.  Tampa probably will not get back to the postseason this year, but I expect them to be around 80 wins, which is a heckuva lot better than their first decade in existence, where they withered down near the bottom of the division each year.  Tampa has a really good pitching staff anchored by David Price, which afforded them the luxury of trading Matt Garza to Chicago over the offseason.  They also have some other pieces which will make them competitive, their biggest question mark though is their bullpen, as it was completely raided by free agency. That will be their downfall probably.

New York Yankees

Biggest gain:  Russell Martin. Martin will be the Yankees primary catcher, as Jorge Posada's knees probably can't take the everyday wear and tear anymore, plus Posada was awful at throwing out runners last season.  Martin is fully capable of providing much better defense and is able to handle the pitching staff very well, as well as provide a fair amount of offense for the catcher's spot.

Biggest loss:   Andy Pettite. Pettite was one of the so called "core four" of the Yankees since 1996.  the others being Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada.  Pettite helped the Yankees pitching staff immensely, as if A.J. Burnett had a bad start, which was often, Pettite would come the next day and save the bullpen. Pettite will also be missed if the Yankees make the postseason, as he was one of the best postseason pitchers ever.

The Yankees will always be up in the top of everyone's list to make the playoffs year in year out because they have the payroll to be able to get any free agent they want. The Yankees offense will again be great, as they have all-stars at six to seven positions just on their bats alone, so that will be no problem scoring runs. the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano to be their set-up man for the greatest closer of all-time Mariano Rivera. Soriano was an all-star for the Rays last year and could've closed anywhere he wanted, but ended up taking the money with New York, so the bullpen is not going to be a problem. The only problem the Yankees will have is in their starting pitching, as after CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes, there are some question marks. Does anyone really trust A.J. Burnett as the number three starter, or Ivan Nova to be really good? Or will Freddy Garcia be a viable number five starter? That is the only question for the Yankees, and that's why I have them second behind the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox

Biggest addition: Take your pick between perennial all-stars Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Crawford will provide more speed to an outfield which already had Jacoby Ellsbury in center, and the Red Sox could conceivably only have two outfielders with how much ground the two of them can cover. Then Gonzalez comes from a very pitcher friendly park in San Diego to possibly the best park for a left handed hitter such as Gonzalez. Plus, Gonzalez will be an upgrade defensively over Kevin Youkilis at first, who can move back to third base.

Biggest loss: Adrian Beltre. Beltre was Boston's MVP last season, as he provided excellent defense over at third, and then provided some big pop. Beltre then signed a new multi-year deal with the Rangers after only signing a one year deal with the Red Sox.

This team has everything. It has really good starting pitching from one to five, a lineup which is as good as any in the big leagues, and a bullpen which is as good as any in the majors. Now, it's just time for the Red Sox to go out and perform as they are capable of performing. This teams should have no trouble winning its third American League Pennant in the new millenium.

Coming later this week: AL Central and West division previews, a final four preview, and the March game of the month. Hope that you all like it!

Saturday, March 26, 2011

NL West Preview/Prediction

Last year was an incredibly shocking run for the San Diego Padres, who most, including this "expert" picked to finish last in the division. they turned out to lose to the eventual World Champion San Francisco Giants on the last day of the season.  San Francisco won the division with pitching, which they plan to use again, with arguably the best staff in the majors. It also doesn't hurt that their staff is all home grown, which makes it easier for fans to like them. What craziness will this division bring us this year? Well, hopefully a lot of it. Again as a refresher, I will go bottom to top with my pick for each team, and review each team's biggest loss and biggest gain.

San Diego Padres

Biggest loss: Adrian Gonzalez. This one is the most obvious loss in all of baseball. Gonzalez was essentially the only source of power coming from the middle of this order, and he still managed to hit 30 homers regularly in an insanely pitcher friendly park. Gonzalez also helped hide errors with his stellar defense at first base.

Biggest gain: The Padres have acquired a bunch of players who are coming off of down years such as Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, and Aaron Harang. If these players revert to their 2009 selves, they can perform very well and allow the Padres to get some more players for their farm system.

The Padres are again expected to do absolutely zilch this season. They proved absolutely everyone wrong last season, but I don't think they can do it two years in a row.  San Diego's offense is again putrid, and they don't have Gonzalez to bail them out of any situations where he could blast a three run homer.  San Diego is trying to rebuild from within, and it will take them a little bit to do so, but they got what they could for Gonzalez and look for sometime in the summer for them to trade all-star closer Heath Bell to try and get more prospects in return.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Biggest gain:  J.J. Putz. Putz is back closing again after a few years of set up duty with the Mets and White Sox.  Putz knows how to close and the Diamondbacks may trade him midseason so they can get prospects.

Biggest loss:  Mark Reynolds. The D-Backs third baseman was traded to the Orioles over the offseason as part of the makeover the Diamondbacks front office is trying to make. Arizona is trying to get rid of high risk, high reward guys like Reynolds in favor of more balanced players. Reynolds is a 40 homer guy, but he also strikes out 200 times a year, which is far far too many for any player.

Arizona was supposed to be a contender for the past three seasons after going to the NLCS in 2007. Now they are getting into full fledged rebuilding mode with new GM Kevin Towers, who was inexplicably let go by the Padres after the 2009 season.  Towers will get the Diamondbacks back on track soon enough, plus Arizona has some very good young talent in the desert, especially with their pitching. Daniel Hudson and Joe Saunders lead the way for the starting pitching.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Biggest gain: Jon Garland comes over from San Diego after having a strong year there in a very pitcher friendly park. Garland again has that privilege in Los Angeles, as Chavez Ravine isn't known as a hitters park. Garland will help solidify an already strong pitching staff.

Biggest loss: Russell Martin, who was the Dodgers starting catcher for the past five seasons.  While Martin's production behind the plate continued to dwindle, he still was very good handling the Dodgers still fairly young pitching staff, so there is a question of whether newcomer Rod Barajas can fill those shoes adequately.

The Dodgers are stuck between a rock and a hard place right now while the McCourt divorce is happening. The reason for that is because they can't spend too much money if they do not know if Frank McCourt or Jamie McCourt owns the team.  The Dodgers are still very talented all throughout the field, but as mentioned, they cannot go out and spend money on any key free agents to upgrade at a key position. Los Angeles has a bunch of good players with James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal if he stays healthy, and so on, but they do have some very good pitching, beginning with Chad Billingsley, who is a horse. Billingsley will definitely give you 200 innings and strike out nearly a batter an inning. Billingsley leads the pitching staff full of quality starters. So if everything turned out correctly, things can work out like roses, if not, then things will turn into weeds quickly.

San Francisco Giants

Biggest gain:  Miguel Tejada. Tejada replaces the tandem of Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria at shortstop. Tejada is not the player he was nearly a decade ago when he won the 2002 AL MVP award, but he is still very servicable at short. Tejada will provide around 15-20 homers and about 80 RBI.

Biggest loss: Uribe, who was a great utility guy who eventually became the everyday third baseman, as Pablo Sandoval regressed a lot from his 2009 form.  Uribe will be  missed for his versatility and pop.

While the Giants are coming off a World Series victory, I just cannot see how they do it back-to-back. There have been few teams in the past 20 years to repeat, in fact the only teams to repeat were the 1992-93 Blue Jays and the 1996-98 Yankees. Plus, it's hard to come back and go to back-to-back World Series, the most recent team to do it was the Phillies in 2008-09, so hence why I'm counting the Giants out of the playoffs. Granted, they have one of the top three staffs in all of baseball top to bottom, but they can't continuously win games 3-2 can they? Even with Brian Wilson and his menacing beard on the mound, they just can't win back to back division titles.

Colorado Rockies

Biggest gain:  Matt Lindstrom. Lindstrom will be the setup man behind closer Huston Street. Lindstrom closed for Houston last year before being dealt to the Rockies in a minor trade. If street struggles or is injured, it's always good to know to have a proven closer behind to be a stop gap solution.

Biggest loss:  The Rockies didn't really have any huge losses over the offseason, just role players like Octavio Dotel, Manny Corpas, and Jason Giambi. These players are not big losses, as the team can replace them rather easily.

The Rockies have high expectations after going on another tear at the end of the 2010 season, falling a few games behind both San Diego and San Francisco.  Plus, if Troy Tulowitzki can put together an entire season like he did last September where he hit a homer seemingly every other day to put himself in the running for the MVP award. Now, they have Carlos Gonzalez back and Colorado hopes to see another performance like last year for him. Finally, Ubaldo Jimenez was the National League's starting pitcher for the All-Star game last year, no reason to think he can't put up Cy Young capable numbers again. This is just a hunch for the Rockies to win the division.

Tomorrow: AL East preview. Will the Red Sox win the division? Will the Orioles finally climb out of the cellar  or even sniff .500 for the first time since 1997? Will the Rays be able to win the division even with all of their losses  over the offseason? Find out tomorrow in the next edition of PJ's sports blog!

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Sweet 16 Preview

Well, the first weekend of the tournament is over, and it was filled with its share of controversy. That controversy all stemmed from what else but the officiating. There were some very controversial calls at the very end of the Butler/Pitt game which allowed Pitt to tie and then for Butler to win it. Then, in the Texas/Arizona game, it seemed as if the entire momentum of the game shifted when the Texas inbounder was not given the complete five seconds to inbound the ball, and he was not granted a timeout he requested. Finally, in the Marquette/Syracuse game, it appears as if Syracuse did not make a back court violation, but the officiating got it wrong, and the committee recognized that.  But, that was the three most flagrant of these out of many other calls that the refs got right. I'm not going to quibble over these small differences in light of the microscope put on these officials because it is the NCAA tournament.
There are some other first weekend thoughts I'd like to share.  The Big East conference is still strong, but not as strong as one may have once thought.  It is still filled with some very good teams. There is no way it should have gotten 11 out of its 16 teams into the tournament. Virginia Commonwealth is showing the nation how much they deserved to be in the tournament after crushing Southern Cal in a "First Four" game, then following that up with drubbings of Big East member Georgetown and Big Ten member Purdue both by 18 points.  Everyone thought that the Southeast bracket would be the "upset" bracket, but that honor has gone to the Southwest bracket, where my national champion pick Kansas is still in against three teams with double digit seeds. Kansas has the easiest road to the final four right now.  Finally, I'd like to give myself a pat on the back because all four Pennsylvania teams are now gone, as I said.  Villanova imploded once agains against George Mason. Temple knocked out Penn State, and then got subsequently knocked out by San Diego State.  Finally, Pitt, an undeserving number one seed got knocked out by Butler in a thrilling third round game.  But, now it is time for the sweet 16 preview.  I will be ranking each game in my opinion of least enticing to most enticing game, and give a little preview and pick for each game.

Kansas vs. Richmond, Southwest region, Friday at 7:27 p.m., TBS

This is the least enticing game simply because I'm expect Kansas to overwhelm the Atlantic 10 tournament champions, who beat a suspect Vandy team and got lucky by facing a 13 seed who needed every amount of energy to beat Louisville.

Pick: Kansas

Duke vs. Arizona, West region, Thursday 9:45 p.m., CBS

Duke has its outstanding freshman Kyrie Erving back, and there are some out there who believe that if Erving was healthy the entire season, Duke would be the overall number one seed right now.  Arizona is in the swing of what seems like a miracle season, as most preseason magazines picked the Wildcats to be in the bottom half of the Pac 10 conference.  Since Erving is back, I'll go with the hated Blue Devils.

Pick: Duke

Marquette vs. North Carolina, East region, Friday 7:15 p.m., CBS

This is a game with a mediocre Big East team against an ACC powerhouse.  North Carolina came into the season with a ton of expectations, including some preseason magazines picking them to win the entire tournament.  Harrison Barnes will continue to lead the Tar Heels into the elite eight.

Pick: North Carolina

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Florida State, Southwest region, Friday 9:57 p.m., TBS

A game with two double digit teams may not seem intriguing, but it is to me because it is two double digit seeds.  VCU is riding momentum after their performances against Georgetown and Purdue. Florida State is also riding momentum after knocking out an overseeded perhaps Notre Dame team.  I like underdogs, and it will be good to see another 11 seed make an elite eight.

Pick: Virginia Commonwealth

Butler vs. Wisconsin, Southeast region, Thursday 9:57 p.m., TBS

Wisconsin put up some bulletin board material earlier in the week for Butler, as they told Butler they were not the underdogs anymore, after going to the national title game last season. Butler is still considered an underdog though, as their seeding dictates they still are, and Vegas says so as well, as Wisconsin is favored by five.  Wisconsin is always a team which seems to make it to the tournament, then lose once they get in, hence why I'm going with Butler.

Pick: Butler

Connecticut vs. San Diego State, West region, Thursday, 7:15 p.m., CBS

San Diego State is coming into the tournament with its best season ever.  They have never gotten past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Their coach, Steve Fisher has though, with Michigan and the "Fab Five" back in the early 1990s. Connecticut also has a very experienced coach, and a superstar guard with Kemba Walker, his leadership ability allows me to think they can go to the national championship game.  Connecticut is essentially playing a road game though, with Anaheim only located about 90 minutes north of San Diego State's campus. With that though, go with the Huskies.

Pick: Connecticut

Ohio State vs. Kentucky, East region, Friday, 9:45 p.m., CBS

Two traditional powerhouses going at it in this game, along with two superstars in Jared Sullinger versus Brandon Knight with Kentucky.  Both players can deliver, but in different ways. Sullinger is the low-post go to guy for the Buckeyes, while Knight is your prototype point guard for the Wildcats, who can shoot or make spectacular assists.  This game is essentially a coin flip in my mind, so go with Kentucky in the upset.

Pick: Kenutcky

BYU vs. Florida, Southeast region, Thursday 7:27 p.m., TBS

BYU and Florida are in a rematch of last year's first round game, where BYU won 99-92 in double overtime.  Florida is out for revenge, and could be considered a home team, as they are playing just west in New Orleans.  BYU lost their leading rebounder and third leading scorer Brandon Davies for the season after violating BYU's honor code late in the season.  The Courgars have seem to rebounded from that and have truly come together as a team, knocking off Wofford and Gonzaga in impressive fashion. I expect a similar result to last season's first round game, a close one, but another W for BYU.

Pick: BYU

Coming soon, previews and predictions for the NL West and the American League divisions.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

NCAA preview and final four picks

March Madness is about to get underway, with the "first four" games starting on Tuesday.  Allow the upsets to begin.  There are several new things with this years tournament.

Well, you may ask what is new? Well, for the first time ever, the tournament will be broadcast over four networks. With the perennial leader CBS pairing up with Turner Sports to bring you the tournament on CBS, TBS, TNT, and a network called trutv. Trutv is formerly known as CourtTV.

Then, there are now 68 teams in the tournament, compared to the former 65 since 2001. With those three newest teams, that creates the new "first four" games in Dayton. How that works out is that the last four teams into the tournament as at-large teams will square off in two games to play their way into the regular bracket. That also goes with four teams from horrible conferences such as the Southland with Texas-San Antonio, the Big South with North Carolina-Asheville, and the Sun Belt with Arkansas-Little Rock.

Now, who are my final four teams? Out of the East bracket, there is North Carolina, the Southeast we have Jimmer and BYU, the Southwest I'll put in Kansas, and in the West I got Connecticut, after their historic run in the toughest conference tournament in the country, they will be in the final four!

But, as far as the Pennsylvania teams are concerned, all of them are going to be out before the second weekend. Pittsburgh has a tough game in the second round with either Butler or Old Dominion. Then, Temple and Penn State are playing each other in the first round. But, whoever wins out of that, has to face the best team San Diego State has ever put out, and SDSU will move on to the sweet 16.  Bucknell is facing one of my final four teams in the first round, Connecticut, so they're out first day. Finally, since Villanova has been on such a downslide, losing five straight, I will pick them to lose against 2006 cinderella George Mason.

Then, as far as the second round is concerned, the upsets I see are Tennessee over Michigan, Memphis over Arizona,  and Mizzou over Cincinnati in the West. Followed by Richmond over Vandy andFlorida State over Texas A&M in the Southwest. Finally in the Southeast, it's going to be the upset bracket with Utah State over Kansas State, Belmont over Wisconsin, Gonzaga over St. John's,  and Michigan state over UCLA.  The East I do not see having any upsets whatsoever, but expect to see at least one.

Please look toward Friday then for my third round picks, which will probably be wrong, but it's all in fun anyway.

NL Central Preview/Prediction

The National League Central is incredibly top-heavy. Now, what I mean by that is that the bottom two teams, the Pirates and Astros have zero realistic shot of winning the division, or having a winning record for that matter. Whereas the top four teams in the division, the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all have a realistic chance of winning the division and possibly the World Series. It's just a matter of which team plays the best and doesn't have many injuries to go along with that. But, as mentioned in the NL East blog, I will go from last to first as far as predictions go. Then, each time I will have their biggest addition, biggest loss, and a little preview about each team.

Houston Astros

Biggest addition:  Bill Hall, the journeyman utility player signed a one year deal with the Astros to be their regular starting second baseman. Hall pretty much will provide adequate defense and give you about 20-25 homers with a .275-.300 average throughout the season.

Biggest loss: Geoff Blum. Blum was the Astros starting third baseman on opening day last season. Hall will provide what Blum did, only Hall will provide it at second base. So, overall they aren't losing too much.

Houston is beginning a rebuilding process, which will take them a few years to get back into the playoff picture.  Houston has very few recognizable pieces, now that they started full fledged rebuilding mode last season when they traded away their two most recognizable faces in Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman.  Now, the Astros have two or three recognizable names in Carlos Lee, which they will be thankful when his contract expires. Brett Myers, who had a surprising first year in Houston, putting up very respectable numbers last year, going 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA. Finally J.A. Happ, which the Astros got from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt trade. Happ is a good young lefty, who has the promise to be a good number two starter in a rotation someday. Happ will get that chance in Houston to prove himself. give the Astros about two or three years for them to be close to contention for a playoff berth again.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Biggest addition: Lyle Overbay. Overbay will hopefully be trade bait for another team, as the Pirates hope that some team needs a first baseman around the time of the trade deadline. Pittsburgh will use Overbay for as long as they can, and Overbay will provide adequate offense, providing about 35 doubles and 20 homers for an entire season. Anything else is gravy for the Bucs.

Biggest loss: Zach Duke. Duke isn't much of a loss, but for what it's worth, Duke was the Pirates opening day starter last season. Duke was not very good at all last season, and he was subsequently traded to Arizona during the offseason.

Sorry whatever Pirates fans are left, but you will again face another losing season, continuing your streak of futility, and this will be the 19th consecutive season that the city of Pittsburgh will not have a winning baseball team.  But, there is reason for hope. The offense is filled with young players who are actually good. The face of the franchise is Andrew McCutchen, the star center fielder who is a speedster, and can show flashes of power from time to time. Then, at third base there is Pedro Alvarez, who is capable of being a 30 homer, 100 RBI guy for years to come.  So, there is some hope in the offense. Just do not have any hope in the pitching staff whatsoever, as that will take several years to groom and for any good pitchers to come out of the farm system.

Chicago Cubs

Biggest addition: Matt Garza. Garza was surprisingly traded to the Cubs from the Rays in the offseason, as most though Garza would stay in Tampa.  Garza is a capable number two pitcher in the Cubs rotation behind the always volatile Carlos Zambrano. Garza should fit well within the Cubs system, as he is primarily a ground ball pitcher, and that will serve him well in the ffriendly confines of Wrigley Field.

Biggest loss:  Derrek Lee. Although Lee was technically gone in August of last season, he is still a big loss, as Lee provided gold glove caliber defense at first base over the past few seasons. Carlos Pena will hopefully provide the type of defense that Lee provided and the Cubs hope that Pena will bat above the Mendoza line of .200 this season while still getting around 25 homers in probably Pena's only season in Chicago.

The Cubs have the talent to compete for the division title. Just can they bring back the magic they had from 2007-08 to win it again this season? The Cubs main problems are that they are very aging in the outfield, averaging about 34 years old in each of their starting spots, and that their starting pitching is rather thin outside of Zambrano and Garza. Granted, they have a consistent third starter in Ryan Dempster, who will provide 200 innings and double digit victories year after year, but is there really anyone who is good after that? They have some good young players at short with Starlin Castro, at second with Blake DeWitt, Geovanny Soto behind the plate, and consistency at third with Aramis Ramirez.

St. Louis Cardinals

Biggest addition:  Lance Berkman. Berkman will be the Cardinals starting right fielder. This is a very questionable signing by the Cardinals, as Berkman hasn't played regularly in the outfield since 2004. Berkman is now 35, and his offensive production has been slipping for the past few seasons.  St. Louis hopes that he can rebound for at least one season and provide capable numbers.

Biggest loss: While this is not a offseason loss, it is an injury loss which is huge for the Cardinals, and this man will be lost for the entire season. The man I'm referring to is Adam Wainwright, who finished second in the National League Cy Young chase behind unanimous winner Roy Halladay.

Wainwright is by far the biggest loss for the Cardinals, as he had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Wainwright is going to be gone this entire season, and possibly part of next year.  St. Louis has two things in its favor though.  An amazing manager in Tony LaRussa, who has only three losing seasons in his 15 seasons as St. Louis manager. Then, there is the best player in the game, Albert Pujols who will put up his .300 average, 30 plus homers, and 100 plus RBI every year. Those two factors make St. Louis never truly out of the race for the division crown.

Cincinnati Reds

Biggest Addition: Again, this truly isn't an offseason addition, but this man is the front runner for Rookie of the Year in the National League. That man is Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.  While Chapman was amazing in his first month in the big leagues, he's going to have to bump it all up over a full season. Chapman will probably be the Reds set-up man in the bullpen and he should be able to accumulate plenty of holds in preparation for 40 save man Francisco Cordero.

Biggest loss: Orlando Cabrera, the Reds starting shortstop for most of last season.  Cabrera provided solid defense and adequate offense for the second position in the batting order.

While the Reds went to the playoffs for the first time since 1995 last season, they then got swept by the Phillies in the division series.  Cincinatti has plenty of depth all around, but especially in pitching.  The Reds have depth in both the bullpen and the starting rotation.  The rotation has six capable starters, and as mentioned above, they have Chapman and Cordero in the pen. Cincy has the National League MVP in Joey Votto, who will continue to mature and grow into one of the premier first basemen in all of the majors.  Cincy also has some really good players at second with Brandon Phillips who is a fine leadoff hitter and can provide great defense.  Scott Rolen has turned into a pleasant surprise at third base, as he provided his usual great defense and had a sort of renaissance in Cincy, batting .285 with 20 homers and 85 RBI last season.  Finally, the outfield has some good players in Laynce Nix and Jay Bruce, who are some good offensive outfielders. But, the Reds just will fall short of winning its second straight division title to believe it or not, the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers

Biggest addition:  Zack Greinke.  Greinke, along with Shaun Marcum, are providing the Brewers with a very capable one-two punch as powerful as any in the National League. Greinke, the 2008 American League Cy Young award winner was traded to Milwaukee for some top prospects, including the Brewers starting shortstop last season, Alcides Escobar.  Greinke should also provide the Brewers with only their second 15 game winner since 1994.

Biggest loss: The aforementioned Escobar, who took over for a prior all-star in J.J. Hardy.  Escobar has an incredibly gifted glove, but is very light hitting. Yuniesky Bentancourt, who along with Greinke is coming over from Kansas City should be an offensive improvement over Escobar.

The Brewers have come into this season basically in a one year gamble for the World Series, as they have a big expiring contract in Prince Fielder, their star first baseman, who is capable of hitting 50 homers in a season. Milwaukee also has other key free agents coming up with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart.  Milwaukee also has some other question marks. Those being at catcher, as they don't really have a clue of who their starting catcher is. Another at the fifth starter, which they have no clue who will be there, and finally, will John Axford continue to be effective in his second season as the closer? Milwaukee will become the third team in three years to become the NL Central champion.

Please read my NCAA tournament preview blog, coming up in a few hours.  I will tell you my final four picks,  and what is new about the tournament this season. Then, next week i'll give you my NL West preview blog as well.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

NL East Preview/Prediction

Ahh...winter is letting go of its grip on southeastern Pennsylvania, it's starting to get warmer, and daylight savings time starts again on Sunday morning at 2 a.m. This can only mean one thing, baseball is getting closer. Only 22 days until March 31 and the official start of baseball season, cannot wait for it.  I will be posting new preview blogs for the National League and then the American League about two a week until opening day.  I will begin in the National League East, where most folks heart lies as far as their favorite team around here. These blogs will follow essentially a basic format of this: the team's biggest acquisition, team's biggest loss, and a preview for the team.  Plus, I will be going in reverse order of finish, last to first as far as my predictions go. Now, on to the preview, starting with the Washington Nationals


Washington Nationals

Biggest addition: Jayson Werth, the biggest overspend in the history of free agency in most folks minds. He signed a seven-year, $126 million dollar deal. Werth will be 39 by the time the deal is done, and he did it for the money, no matter what anyone else says.

Biggest departure: Adam Dunn, their starting first baseman bolted for the White Sox after putting up his seventh consecutive year of 35 or more home runs. Dunn signed a four-year $56 million dollar contract with the Sox to be their designated hitter/part time first baseman.

The Nationals are building towards the future. They will try to bring in some free agents to complement parts and bring in veteran leadership.  Case in point is Werth, as they do not really have a suitable option in the minors yet, so they brought in Werth. Washington also has some good young players with Nyjer Morgan in center, Wilson Ramos, who they got from Minnesota in exchange for Matt Capps is going to be their catcher of the future, Ian Desmond will be a fine shortstop, and the face of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman at third. So, they got good players at those positions who play fine defense and put up solid offensive statistics every year. The problem with the Nationals is that they do not have any pitching. Their pitching rotation is horriffic, with John Lannan and Livan Hernandez as your ace and second pitcher is not going to cut it. One Stephen Strasburg comes back next year, they should be getting better, but this year is another last place finish.

New York Mets

Biggest addition: manager Terry Collins. The Mets roster itself did not have much turnover as far as the starting lineup or starting pitching or closer is concerned, so this has to be their biggest addition. Collins takes over for the fired Jerry Manuel, who only lasted two and a half seasons before he was fired. Collins has not been a manager in the majors for over a decade, so it's an interesting hire to say the least.

Biggest subtraction: Rod Barajas, not that big of a loss, but he was the Mets opening day starter last season, so it is definitely worth noting.

The Mets are in financial shambles thanks to Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme, as the Mets have had to get multi-million dollar loans just to run the team.  New York is also plagued by injuries a lot, so if your a Mets fan and Memorial Day rolls around and the Mets are in first place, it's a passing thing most likely.  If the Mets could stay healthy for any length of time, they would be a force to contend with in the division, as it is, they will probably be looking to dump payroll by the time the trade deadline approaches.

Florida Marlins

Biggest addition:  Javier Vasquez, while Vasquez was sub par with the Yankees, he should perform a lot better in a place where not a whole lot of fans care about the baseball team.  Plus, if you go back two years ago, when Vasquez was with the Braves, he had a 15-10 record, and had a 2.87 ERA for the season. If the Marlins can get that type of production out of their fourth starter, they should be ok with Vasquez for a one-year deal.

Biggest subtraction: Dan Uggla, who they traded away to the rival Braves.  Uggla was not about to get as big as an extension as he would have liked from the Marlins, so they traded him to the Braves, where he got a five year extension. Uggla is a big loss for Florida, as he was a big bopper in the middle of the lineup, and could hit a lot of homers in Sun Life Stadium, normally a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Florida has a dynamite young team, as five of the eight starting positions are being filled by players with less than two years experience.  The Marlins have a really good young lineup, and they are very solid up the middle, where you want to be.  Another big free agent they brought in was John Buck, an all-star with the Blue Jays last year who will be their starting catcher, then a very good starting staff, led by workhorse Josh Johnson, who went head-to-head with Roy Halladay last year, and nearly beat Halladay during his perfect game.  Then at shortstop, you have arguably the best one in the game, with Hanley Ramirez who will put up a guaranteed .300 average, and has the capability to hit 35 homers.  At second, they have a solid one with Omar Infante, one of the guys they got back from Atlanta for Uggla. Finally, in center, they have 2009 Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan.  Finally, the Marlins have a good bullpen, with closer Leo Nunez. If the Marlins can get it all together, they have a very good shot to win the wild card, maybe even the division. As it is though, I'll say wait until next year, when they are in their new ballpark.

Atlanta Braves

Biggest addition: Uggla, who replaces the fine Martin Prado as the everyday second baseman, while Prado moves to the outfield.  Uggla will bring some much needed power to the lineup and provide protection for Brian McCann, the only true power in the lineup.

Biggest subtraction: it is hard to place this on anyone but Bobby Cox, the Braves manager for the past 20 seasons.  Every single person in the clubhouse loved playing for Bobby, and he brought a sense of calness and regularity to a clubhouse, which doesn't normally experience it.

While Cox may be gone as manager, the Braves were quick to jump on Fredi Gonzalez, the Braves former third base coach, and the Marlins former manager to come in and take over.  Gonzalez has tried to keep Cox as close to the club as possible during spring training, and has tried to keep everything the same as it ever has been.  Atlanta is very solid all around, with very few question marks surrounding the team.  The three biggest question marks are the following: closer, outfield, and the corner infield positions.  First, to start with the closer, and the favorite seems to be power pitcher Craig Kimbrel, who was great last season setting up for the now retired Billy Wagner.  Kimbrel had a 0 ERA post all-star break last season, and should be suited to settle into the closer role.  Second question is the outfield.  Prado is moving to a position he never played before in left, Nate McLouth had a horrible season last year and was even demoted to AAA Gwinnett, and will jason Heyward have a sophomore slump? Heyward was the NL ROY runner-up last season to Buster Posey, so he should be fine. McLouth looks to rebound and even had a ok August and September last season, when he was called back up. Then Prado, who is coming off a hip pointer injury and adjusting to the outfield from the infield.  He has handled everything well enough coming into the season, now can it crossover into the regular season.  Finally, the corner infield spots.  Freddie Freeman will be the starting first baseman, and there is always a question of whether or not the rookies can cut the mustard so to speak in the majors.  Then, at third, Chipper Jones, the face of the franchise for the past 15 seasons, is coming off a torn ACL, and can he come back and be a good third baseman so quickly in this, his probable last season?

Philadelphia Phillies

Biggest addition: Cliff Lee. Everyone in and around the city of brotherly love was saying Merry Cliffmas when he arrived just before Christmas in Philadelphia.  Lee, who was inexplicably traded before the 2009 season to  make room for Roy Halladay, really enjoyed his brief tenure with the Phillies in 2009, leading them to the 2009 World Series that he wanted to come back and hopefully lead this team to its second World Series title in four years.

Biggest subtraction:  Werth, who was the right-handed power in the lineup that was filled with left handed bombers in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.  Plus, now there is a huge void in right field, which will be filled by the still largely unproven Ben Francisco.

Philadelphia fans and "experts" alike, including me are praising the four "ace" pitchers the Phillies have, along with a not so bad fifth in Joe Blanton.  This starting staff is probably the best in baseball, although arguments can be made for the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, and Boston Red Sox.  While this rotation on paper looks amazing, allow us all to remember that they can't pitch perfect games every single time out.  This lineup is aging, and no starting pitcher or fielder is younger than 28 to begin the season.  There are many questions, including whether or not Chase Utley's knee is going to bother him for most of the season.  While there are many questions, it is safe to say that the Phillies are still the class of the NL East, no matter what.

Check back on Saturday night/Sunday morning for my NL Central preview. Will the Reds repeat? How will the top four teams sort out between the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, and Cubs? Finally, check out my ESPN tournament challenge bracket challenge in time for the tournament, which begins on Tuesday. I'll also have a preview/prediction of my final four come Sunday when the brackets are revealed.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

January/February Game of The Month

   January and February are being combined into this one post. I became complacent over the past month and did not blog at all. Those actively checking back to see if I had posted a new post, I thank you. This month of March will be filled with over ten posts. The two main topics of this month will be Major League Baseball team and division previews along with covering the madness of March and the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
January
   January's game of the month is fairly easy in my estimation. The game has to be the Seattle Seahawks-New Orleans Saints Wild Card playoff game. The reason why it is the G.O.M. is because nobody expected the Seahawks to do absolutely jack squat in the game.  However, New Orleans was also trying to break a streak of Super Bowl Champions to win a playoff games.  New Orleans was trying to become the first team in five years to win a playoff game after winning the Super Bowl.  Seattle came into the game having to win its last game to even get into the playoffs. Then, they came in with a losing record, 7-9 to be exact and won the pathetic NFC West with it. Everyone and their mother expected New Orleans to win, as they were the defending Super Bowl Champions, and with the amount of talent they had over Seattle.  Two early Seahawks mistakes were turning the game into one that everyone expected and New Orleans came out to an early 10-0 lead.  But, after the early 10-0 lead, Seattle quickly came back into the game with a touchdown to cut the lead down to three.  After that, the teams went back and forth until the half with the score Seattle 24-20.  Seattle then quickly went and scored 10 unanswered points in the second half.  New Orleans managed to come back and come close at 34-30 in the fourth quarter.  Finally, the indelible play in the game occurs, with Marshawn Lynch barreling over seemingly ever Saints defender on his way to put the game away and give Seattle the lead of 41-30 with less than four minutes to go.
   There were other candidates for the January game of the month including the following NFL playoff games: New York Jets-Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay-Philadelphia, New York Jets-New England, Pittsburgh-Baltimore, New York Jets-Pittsburgh.  Then, there were also several bowl games to choose from, including: Wisconsin-TCU, Ohio State-Arkansas, and the BCS National Title game, Oregon-Auburn. If you disagree, please let me know on here in the comments or via facebook.
February 
   Arizona-Cal in triple overtime.  Normally I wouldn't care for a basketball game. I wouldn't even care for a regular season hockey game, but when a game goes into triple overtime, it begs for your attention.  Cal is a very mediocre team in the Pac-10 conference.  Arizona was on a tear coming into this game.  But, when a team is ranked, you always want to beat that team, especially when it's on your own home floor.  Cal definitely rose up to play this game, but ultimately lost in triple overtime, 107-105.
Another basketball related thing is happening here in this column. That would be the NBA Slam Dunk contest. Granted this is not a game, or a race, or what have you, but this dunk contest was very nice, as it featured the most exciting player in the NBA today, Blake Griffin. Plus, it featured some other good dunkers with Demar Derozan, Javale McGee, and Serge Ibaka.
   Everyone pulled out a pretty nice dunk. Griffin won the contest by jumping over the hood of a car. That is very impressive, no matter how you slice it. Derozan did a dunk he called "East Bay Dunk Remix".  Essentially, he had a teammate bounce the ball off the support of the backboard, then Derozan went underneath the backboard put the ball through his legs and then dunked it.  McGee I thought had the most impressive dunk of the night by dunking two balls into two separate hoops. He did it by throwing a ball off the backboard and used his momentum to dunk the two balls. Finally, Ibaka brought a kid out and put a doll on a pole then grabbed the doll with his mouth while dunking the ball. Ibaka's dunk is kind of disgusting, yet also pretty cool when you think about the amount of height needed to grab the doll with his mouth.
   However, my game of the month is actually a race, that would be the 53rd Daytona 500. The "Great American Race" was a historic race as it crowned the youngest champion in its history. Trevor Bayne won the race at the ripe old age of 20 years, one day old. Bayne not only beat the previous record, he shattered it, as he was more than five years younger than the previous record holder, Jeff Gordon.  Bayne also won the biggest race in NASCAR in only his second ever Sprint Cup start, which is pretty remarkable, to control the nerves racing in that race.  This running of the Daytona 500 was historic in a few other areas as well.  The race had 74 lead changes among 22 drivers, and it had 16 cautions. This race was a lot more exciting than the 2010 version which was filled and marred with delays due to potholes. The 2011 version was also nice in the fact that the track received a repaving for the first time in a long time.
Again, if you disagree with my picks, please let me know via facebook or in the comments section.  Or, if you'd like, you can lavish praise upon my picks. Either way, I would love to hear from you, the most important people of this column.
Stay tuned for more blogs coming up!