The final Sunday of the NFL season is upon us, and it's a rematch. Not only of one of the best Super Bowls ever in Super Bowl XLII, but also in the regular season, which was also a fantastic game. And, for those living under a rock for the past week and a half, the two teams competing in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis, are the New York Football Giants, as per their official name, and the New England Patriots. Granted, this isn't truly a rematch, as more than 75% of the players from that 2008 game are no longer with their respective teams. But, the four most important people from that Super Bowl are still with their teams, those being the coaches Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick as well as the quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning. Those four key figures are the most important people within the game. Throughout the week, it has been debated across numerous talking head type shows of who is the better coach between the two, if Brady loses, will his career be diminished and if Manning wins, is his career as good as his brother? Those are all hypotheticals that will be answered after all these players and coaches have retired, so why debate them now? Just to fill up air time in between now and the unofficial national holiday of the United States in Super Bowl Sunday. But, instead of hypotheticals in those questions, I will examine and breakdown each team in key categories, such as: quarterback, wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, secondary, special teams, intangibles and head coaches. Also give an edge to each team or push and give a prediction on the game itself. Now, on to the prediction!
Quarterback
Tom Brady versus Eli Manning. These two guys are elite quarterbacks, and no matter what, their legacies will not be changed. Both of these guys are great, and you can't separate them.
Advantage: Even
Wide Receivers
Both teams have very good wide receivers, however, the edge does go to New York. The advantage goes to the Giants here because their two starting wide receivers, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz combined for over 2,500 yards, and then their slot receiver, Mario Manningham could start for 20 of the other 32 teams in the league. Plus, the Giants receivers can do all that is asked of them, they can go deep, short, and go over the middle without hesitation. Whereas the New England Patriots receivers really are only capable of doing the short and intermediate routes while relying on their tight ends to go deep and catch the fade routes. Granted, no team would deny wanting Wes Welker and Deion Branch.
Advantage: New York
Tight Ends
Here, the Patriots have the distinct advantage, with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Both of those guys are complete and utter nightmare mismatches for the defense. Both guys stretch the field, and they're really power forwards playing football. They can go up and grab the ball, and are faster than safeties and linebackers. Plus, Hernandez has the extra dimension of running the ball when asked due to his running back background when he was in high school. Finally, both of them are great at blocking when asked to stay in. New York has Jake Ballard who is good, but not necessarily great at everything.
Advantage: New England
Running Backs
Here, New York again has the clear advantage. Granted, New York runs the ball more often than New England, but New York's two main running backs, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw together, are a two headed beast which is really hard to stop. Both of them combined for over 1,500 yards this season and are capable of catching the ball out of the backfield as well as blocking well. New England relies on Danny Woodhead, Kevin Faulk, and the "lawfirm" in BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who are mainly used for blocking and catching screen passes which they are quite capable of. Green-Ellis is used also mainly to run in the red zone, and good, but not great at that.
Advantage: New York
Offensive Line
Both of these teams have great offensive lines, as both teams have remained healthy and cohesive as a unit throughout the season. Both of these teams also allowed very few sacks throughout the season. Granted, New York gave up a ton of hits and sacks versus the 49ers in the NFC title game, but that defense is much more staunch than the Patriots. So, these two teams are very even in this aspect as well.
Advantage: Even
Defensive Line
This goes to New York easily, due to the fact that they've got four pass rushers who can play all four positions along the defensive line. Those guys will wreak havoc on any offensive line, and when these two teams played in week nine of the regular season, Tom Brady really felt pressure when there wasn't any. Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Dave Tollefson are great. Granted, New England is no slouch either, but they've got nothing on this front four.
Advantage: New York
Linebackers
This position is closer than the defensive line, however, New York still has the edge. Mathias Kiwanuka leads the way for New York who is intense when it comes to pass rushing, and can cover at least one of the Patriots wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Patriots also have good linebackers but really can't compare to the Giants.
Advantage: New York
Secondary
This part of the game, is often overlooked, but New England's strength on defense comes from this secondary, which has created more than its share of turnovers throughout the season, and will be key in this game, as turnovers are always key. Both teams have some really good cover corners and safeties. But, it's really too close to call, and I don't know enough to really call it one way or the other.
Advantage: Even
Special Teams
This, again, will be a very key part in the game. Field position will be key, so the punters for both teams, Zoltan Mesko for the Patriots as well as Steve Weatherford of the Giants. Both of these punters have excellent net averages, with Weatherford's only being two yards more, but really, that part is even. Then, the kicking game, both Stephen Gostkowski and Lawrence Tynes are fantastic kickers, and can be pro bowlers in any given year, they're that good. So, the return game will be the key. But, even there, neither team has a truly elite returner, so these teams are even.
Advantage: Even
Head Coaches
Both coaches are probably hall of famers. Belichick is taking the Patriots to the Super Bowl for the fifth time since he took over in 2000. So, in 12 years, taking a team to the ultimate game of the season a little under half the time, can't deny that he's really good in his job. Then, with Coughlin, his job is always seeming in question in the biggest market in the U.S. But, his teams are consistent winners. Coughlin has taken his teams to four conference title games as well as two Super Bowls. Not too shabby in 16 years of coaching. So, this match up is even.
Advantage: Even
Intangibles
This is where New England should have the distinct advantage. This team does not want to lose to New York twice in a season, let alone being remembered as a team which lost to the same team twice in Super Bowls. The Patriots have also won 10 consecutive games and they seem to have figured out everything in the postseason. Plus, Brady is just such a fierce competitor, he will not want to lose to end his season again. He wants to be on the level as Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only three quarterbacks to win four Super Bowls.
Granted, New York is also quite a run as well, but there are two other 9-7 teams to make the Super Bowl, both lost. And, that tradition shall continue here.
Advantage: New England
Now, looking back throughout all the categories, the tally comes to: New York 4, New England 2, and the 5 others coming out as even. But, for my money, the Patriots will remember 2008 and vow not to have that happen again.
Pick: New England 23, New York 20
Next week, I will look back at my predictions from August and September and see how wrong I was. I'll also give a look back at the month of January as well as the Super Bowl to remember a great month in sports. Finally, for those of you who don't know what time or channel this little game is on: Sunday, 6:30 on NBC with the best announcing team in the NFL: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, and Michele Tafoya on the sidelines. Be sure to follow them on twitter: @SNFonNBC, as well as me: @PJWalk85
Enjoy the Super Bowl, forget your diets on Sunday, and be sure to have a designated driver if you've had a wee bit too much to drink.
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