We are now a quarter way mark of the NFL season, with every team playing four games and you are starting to see which teams are separating themselves from the pack, like the Packers, Lions, Saints, Texans, Patriots, Baltimore, and some others. Plus, every college team has played at least four games, but some teams have yet to prove themselves on the road, like three Big Ten teams in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Plus, there's Kansas State. So, really only the Big Ten teams are at fault, as at least K-State played Baylor at home, a ranked team and upset them. Wisconsin also played the biggest game of the season thus far and beat Nebraska soundly at home. But, enough with the previews, and move on to the picks!
College
#3 Oklahoma vs. #11 Texas, noon, ABC, at Cotton Bowl in Dallas
This is the Red River Rivalry, and it could turn into the Red River shootout as well. Both teams have very potent offenses, especially Texas after they decided to ditch Garrett Gilbert in their game against BYU. As after they replaced Gilbert, the Longhorns have averaged 43 points in their ensuing two games. Texas has done very well exchanging either Case McCoy or David Ash in for one another, and their defense has done a fine job as well, only allowing a little under 15 points per game throughout all four of their contests thus far.
Oklahoma on the other hand has their eyes on the national title or bust. Oklahoma has a whole bunch of veterans, led by Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles on offense, and Tony Jefferson and Blake Gideon. The Sooners have some high hopes, and those hopes will continue, as they beat Texas and exact revenge from 2008, the last time both teams came into this rivalry undefeated. Oklahoma will do it because of their experience.
Pick: Oklahoma 38, Texas 23
#17 Florida at #1 LSU, 3:30, CBS
Florida is coming off a woeful loss at home to Alabama, and that game was in prime time as well. The Gators also lost their starting quarterback John Brantley in that game. Now, Florida must try to get a new quarterback to learn everything in their system in a week, plus travel to "death valley" and face one of the nation's best defenses in LSU. The Bayou Bengals also have a defensive Heisman candidate like they did last year in Tyrann Mathieu, who just goes straight after the football every time to try and force a turnover. So, my guess is that Florida is probably going to have a very tough time against this Tiger defense.
Pick: LSU 41, Florida 17
#5 Boise State at Fresno State, 9 Friday, ESPN
Fresno State and Boise State have been longtime rivals within the WAC, but now with Boise moving on to supposedly greener pastures in the Mountain West, this has become a non-conference game. Fresno State always seems to play its best against premier competition like Boise, but can the "bus" of Boise State be stopped? Kellen Moore seems to be doing better this season even without his two big targets Titus Young and Austin Pettis. So, it'll be a good game for the first half, but the Broncos should pull away in the second half.
Pick: Boise 31, Fresno St. 16
Iowa at Penn State, 3:30, ABC
If Penn State can stick with Matt McGloin at quarterback throughout an entire game, they may actually have an okay offense. Penn State and their defense is the main reason why they're 4-1 at the moment, with the only loss to a great Alabama team. Iowa is coming into Penn State playing its first conference game this season, and its only loss coming at an improved Iowa State team. Penn State should be able to hold Iowa on defense, and I think they'll score a few more points if McGloin starts.
Pick: Penn State 20, Iowa 17
#15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas, 7, ESPN
Auburn went from unranked last week to number 15 this week due to their win on the road at South Carolina. Auburn played stellar defense last week, forcing four turnovers and riding sophomore running back Michael Dyer to a victory. Auburn slowed down sophomore sensation Marcus Lattimore and only allowed him to rush for 66 yards last week. Plus, they didn't allow Gamecock quarterback to even complete half his passes. However, Auburn hasn't been playing like that throughout the season.
Arkansas on the other hand, is an offensive juggernaut, scoring at least 38 points in each of their victories, with their only loss coming at undefeated Alabama. Tyler Wilson is becoming the next Ryan Mallett at Arkansas, and they don't seem to be stopping.
Pick: Arkansas 44, Auburn 20
NFL
Tennessee at Pittsburgh, 1, CBS
Tennessee has also been a good surprise this season, going 3-1 on the young season, relying on their defense and an experienced quarterback to lead the way. Even though Chris Johnson hasn't been his usual self this year, Matthew Hasselbeck, released by the Seahawks for some inexplicable reason, has been wonderful. Hasselbeck already has over 1100 yards and eight touchdowns this season.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand has been like Philly and a bad surprise, going 2-2, and being one of the worst teams in the league in turnover differential, at -10 thus far. Pittsburgh also has yet to intercept a pass, which is surprising, considering they still have ball-hawking safety Troy Polamalu. Pittsburgh also is going to be without their star linebacker James Harrison in this game, as he is out with a broken orbital bone. Plus, they won't have their best two running backs in Rashard Mendenhall or Mewelde Moore due to injuries. So, for those injuries, I'm picking the Titans in a low scoring affair.
Pick: Tennessee 17, Pittsburgh 13
Philadelphia at Buffalo, 1, Fox
Both teams are off to very surprising starts, with the Eagles losing three of their first four games and the Bills winning three of their first four, including two 18 plus point comebacks against the Raiders and Patriots. This should be a very high scoring game, as Buffalo can't seem to gain a pass rush whatsoever, only having four sacks on the season thus far, which should allow LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick to be able to run all day. Vick could also pass to any of his weapons should the Bills decide to blitz.
Buffalo meanwhile has a good running ack in Fred Jackson they can use to exploit Philly's awful rush defense, which ranks 30th in the NFL. The Eagles also lost one of their two great defensive ends in Trent Cole for a few weeks, so Ryan Fitzpatrick could have some more time to pass to his decent wide receivers in Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler. The Eagles should be able to win this game, just so long as they don't blow leads like they have in each of the past three games.
Pick: Eagles 38, Bills 31
Tampa Bay at San Francisco, 4, Fox
Tampa has been playing just as well as it did last season when it went 10-6 and narrowly missing out on the playoffs. Tampa has come back for victories in half of their games thus far for victories. Tampa has a very cool, calm, and collected quarterback in Josh Freeman to lead those comebacks. Tampa also has a pretty good young running back in LeGarrette Blount. San Francisco meanwhile has been breaking through this season, after a few years of saying "this will be the year." They've been doing it with a stellar defense led by leading tackler Patrick Willis and a running game led by pro bowler Frank Gore and rookie Kendall Hunter. San Francisco also is having Alex Smith focus on his strengths and not exploit his weaknesses.
Pick: San Francisco 27, Tampa 21
New York Jets at New England, 4:15, CBS
The Jets exploited New England in last year's divisional playoff, winning 28-21, and picking off Tom Brady for the first time since week six of last season. However, New England beat New York 45-3 last December. So, this is definitely a rivalry game, both teams don't like each other at all, and this is going to be a very tough game. Even though New York has lost two straight, it's a rivalry game, so throw everything out the window. Just expect hard hitting and a lot of running by New York, and a lot of passing by New England.
Pick: New York 26, New England 24
Green Bay at Atlanta, 8:20, NBC
This is also a rematch of a divisional playoff game last season, where Green Bay absolutely demolished Atlanta 48-21. Green Bay has been on the same kind of roll at the beginning of this season as it has last season, so I'm expecting nothing different now. Green Bay just is clicking on all cylinders.Atlanta hasn't been the same team this season, only going 2-2, and only barely winning last week against a horrible Seattle team.
Pick: Green Bay 32, Atlanta 20
McGloin was 1-10 for like 7 yards against Alabama, the best defense we played. McGloin has done what he does best, feast on bad defenses (Eastern Michigan). Against good defenses (Florida in bowl game, Alabama this year) he is terrible. Bolden is consistently okay - he looked better against Bama but has not capitalized like McGloin against the bad teams.
ReplyDeleteSo I agree that based on this year, McGloin has looked better overall. But when McGloin runs into good teams, he stinks. Your analysis that they will automatically be better with McGloin is a bit off then.
Okay, they must stick with one qb then, as one needs to come through.
ReplyDelete