Friday, April 1, 2011

Final Four preview/prediction

This year has a final four which we have never seen before in the history of the NCAA tournament. There is no number one or number two seed in it. Plus, there is a team which had to win five games to get here instead of the normal four in Virginia Commonwealth University due to them being one of the "last four in" to the field of 68.  Then, there is also a team in Butler which no "expert" thought would make it to back to back final fours for the first time in their history. It is also the first time since 1991 that a team outside of the "power" six conferences has made back to back final fours. The team that did it then was UNLV.  Now, time for the previews!

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler

Amazingly, Butler, as a number eight seed will be able to wear their home whites for only the second time in this tournament. The other time was against Old Dominion in the first round.  Virginia Commonwealth is in here thanks to the NCAA selection committee and nobody else. Every single basketball "expert" had them in the NIT and were amazed that VCU got a bid over fellow Virginia team, Virginia Tech, Colorado and even Harvard.  But, VCU has definitely made the most out of their opportunity, as they have won every game except one by double digits. The only game they failed to win was the game against fellow double digit seed Florida state, where they eked out a one point victory.
Butler took a completely opposite path, as every single game they have played has been decided by single digits.  Their biggest margin of victory was by seven points.  Coach Brad Stevens and his boyish looks deserve a ton of credit for coaching this team so well after they scuffled out of the gates for the second consecutive year.  But, Matt Howard ans Shelvin Mack have done a terrific job. Howard has been an inside presence just like the 2010 tournament and Mack has been explosive from three.  This game, I don;t really care who wins, as a mid-major conference is being represented in the national title game for the second consecutive season. But, as I have to pick, I'll give it to the Bulldogs to make it back to back national title appearances.

Pick: Butler 67, VCU 62

Kentucky vs. Connecticut

These two teams met in November at the Maui Invitational, and Kentucky got torched, 84-67.  But, this is a completely different Kentucky team from back in November.  Brandon Knight had yet to mature into the player he is now, and Josh Harrellsson was an overweight prankster, but has turned into a big force inside down in the post.  Kentucky had to be considered a long shot to make the final four, considering their woes in road and neutral site games up until February 26th, as they have won eight straight road and neutral site games since then.  Before the 26th, Kentucky was only 6-8 in road/neutral site games prior to that date.
Connecticut is essentially the same team it was back in November, with Kemba Walker leading the way.  Both teams are great teams, and it will be a fantastic game, considering how much Kentucky has improved since November.  This game also has two traditional powerhouses in Kentucky and UConn,  and for one of them it has been some time since they have gotten to the final four. For Kentucky, it has been since 1998, and for Connecticut, it has only been two seasons. in 2009 they got there, but lost to Michigan State in a de facto home game for the Spartans.  Should be a well played close game, just like the early game.

Pick: Kentucky 76, UConn 67

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