Monday, January 31, 2011

Super Bowl XLV Preview!

Ahh...yes, we have come to the final game of the NFL season, the ultimate game, watched by so many just for the commercials and the halftime show, but for the purist, still the NFL championship will be decided with this very game.  Plus, it features two historical teams, one many consider the team of the '60s with the Green Bay Packers, and the other many consider the team of the '70s, and possibly even the 2000s thus far, the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The names have such cache, it's hard not to foresee this game surpassing even last year's mark of 106 million viewers for the most watched television program of all time.  Finally, these two teams many considered favorites in their respective conferences to make the Super Bowl, including this blogger who predicted both would make the playoffs.  Before getting into dissecting each team, and giving an edge to each team in the following positions: offensive line, quarterback, running back, wide receivers/tight ends, kicker, punter, defensive line, linebacker, and secondary.  Allow me to look at how each team got to the Super Bowl in Dallas.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Came through the first four games of the regular season without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger relatively unscathed, going 3-1, with their only loss to division rival Baltimore.  Pittsburgh then went 9-3 after those first four games to finish 12-4 and win the divisional tiebreaker over Baltimore for the coveted number two seed in the AFC, where they had a first round bye and were fortunate enough to have the New York Jets beat New England so the AFC Championship game would be at home.  Before that AFC title game, Pittsburgh had to face divisional rival Baltimore for the third time in a hard hitting, brutal game which changed momentum after Ray Rice's key fumble in the third quarter.  That allowed the Steelers to seize momentum and eventually won that game 31-24.
Then came the AFC championship game, where the Steelers steamrolled the Jets in the first half to make it a seemingly insurmountable 24-0 lead at the break.  New York valiantly tried to make a comeback, but Pittsburgh sealed it on a crucial third down conversion from Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown to seal the game and run out the clock from there.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has had to overcome three big injuries to get to the playoffs, one to starting tight end Jermichael Finley who was supposed to have a breakout year, and  another to starting linebacker Nick Barnett, who was a leader on the defensive side of the ball.  Then, there was starting running back Ryan Grant, who was supposed to carry the load running the ball and take some pressure off of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  Plus, Green Bay had two must win games at the end of the season to even make the playoffs, and they won both to get in.  Really, the Packers have been on a roll since Rodgers came back from his second concussion of the season to defeat both the Giants and Bears to get into the playoffs.
In the playoffs, the Packers have had to play all three of their games on the road thus far, playing in Philadelphia where Green Bay pulled a running game out of its hat to rush for over 100 yards against a fairly porous Eagles run defense, and Green Bay escaped Philly with a 21-16 victory.  The divisional round they had to go to a place where only one team one all season, to the Georgia Dome to face the Atlanta Falcons.  Only New Orleans beat Atlanta in Atlanta this season, and the Packers met that challenge easily, defeating the number one seed 48-21.  Finally, they had to face another divisional foe like the Steelers did when they faced their rivals, the Chicago Bears in the NFC championship game.  The Packers caught somewhat of a break in that Jay Cutler was out for half the game and they relied on their defense to get them to the Super Bowl, clinching the victory with a B.J. Raji interception return for touchdown.

Now that you know how the teams got here, it is now time to break it down.

Offensive Line

Both teams have fairly mobile quarterbacks, with Rodgers and Roethlisberger able to move out of the pocket and keep plays alive, so offensive line play isn't as key as one would think in this game.  The edge goes to the Packers though, for the simple reason that Maurkice Pouncey, the all-pro rookie center of the Steelers is most likely out of the Super Bowl with a high ankle sprain, which is highly difficult to come back from.

Edge:  Packers

Quarterback

Both teams have excellent quarterbacks who have very different strengths.  Rodgers can put a team on his back and carry it, much like he did for the past five games, throwing the ball effectively down the field and accurately.  Rodgers can also run the ball pretty well for a quarterback, as he is willing to tuck the ball and run with it if need be.  Roethlisberger is a leader, who can manage the game very well, throwing when he needs to, but can also be like Rodgers and throw the ball 40 times if need be with accuracy.  That, and the fact the he's been to the Super Bowl twice before, gives him the slight edge over Rodgers right now.

Edge:  Steelers

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Green Bay has a plethora of targets to throw to who can be Pro Bowl caliber: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson.  These are all names which are recognizable, and all four had over 550 yards receiving on the year.  Pittsburgh has Hines Ward as the main number one threat, but the rest of the guys are very unknown who are first year starters like Mike Wallace, who is their deep threat, and they normally throw to him once a game to try for a big play.  The tight end position favors Pittsburgh because Heath Miller can block very well as well as catch the ball for a great possession guy.  Green Bay lost Finley, and that hurt them here, as otherwise they would have a gigantic edge in this category.  As it is, they still have a big one though.

Edge:  Packers

Running Backs

Green Bay had virtually zero running game throughout the regular season since Ryan Grant went down with an injury, now they have found one in the postseason with sixth round choice James Starks out of Buffalo.  Green Bay also has a solid backup with power back John Kuhn, who is the main guy for down inside the 10 yard line.  The Steelers are notorious for running the ball htroughout their history and turning out great backs like Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis.  They have another potentially great one with Rashard Mendenhall, who just comepleted his second consecutive 1,000 yard rushing season.  Then, they also have a good backup with Mewelde Moore, who is more of a third down back than anything.

Edge:  Steelers

Kicker

Pittsburgh released their original kicker, Jeff Reed in the middle of the season, as he was doing awful at Heinz Field, and signed Shaun Suisham who was sitting at home when the Steelers called.  Green Bay on the other hand, has had former Pro Bowler Mason Crosby for three seasons, and is one of the best in football.  Crosby also has a very strong leg, as evidenced in the first game of the season when he hit a 56-yard field goal.

Edge:  Packers

Punter

Pittsburgh had an injury to their former Pro Bowl punter Daniel Speulveda late in the season, so by de facto, the edge goes to the Packers.

Edge:  Packers

Defensive line

Both teams are very even in the front seven, as both employ 3-4 defenses, which means they have three down lineman, and four linebackers, instead of the usual 4-3, which is vice versa.  Both have great nose tackles, Green Bay with B.J. Raji, Pittsburgh with Casey Hampton.  Both have very good defensive ends, Green Bay with Cullen Jenkins and Johnny Jolly.  Pittsburgh with Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith.

Edge: Slightly to the Packers, as they are younger.

Linebackers

I would take either team's set of linebackers over pretty much any other in the NFL.  All eight are capable of being all-pro linebackers.  Both teams can rush the passer like no other, both teams have linebackers who can drop back in coverage and cover tight ends with relative ease, so this one I'm afraid is a push.

Edge: Push

Secondary

While both teams have very good secondaries, Pittsburgh has all-pro Troy Polamalu and he can change a game by himself.  Offensive coordinators and quarterbacks are always looking out for where he is on the field, as Polamalu can leap over both lines and make a sack, he can come in on run defense and stop a running back in his tracks, he can pick off a quarterback and return it for a touchdown.  Just for Polamalu, the Steelers have the edge.

Edge:  Steelers

Coaching

Mike Tomlin is the youngest coach ever to go to two Super Bowls.  Mike McCarthy is also very good, but can sometimes have trouble with clock management.  Pittsburgh also has a hall of fame assistant in Dick LeBeau, who will try and blitz Rodgers all day to try and make hi make mistakes.  Green Bay also has some fine assistant coaches in Dom Capers who will try and do the exact same thing to Roethlisberger with his schemes.  Overall, both coaching staffs are really good, but must give the edge to the Steelers based on experience.

Edge:  Steelers

So, after the tally has been totaled, I give a slight edge overall to the Packers, 5-4, with a push thrown in for good measure.  Does that mean I'm going to pick the Packers?  Yes, as I think the Packers will be able to overcome their injuries and become the third team ever to play all of its games on the road and win their fourth Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLV Prediction:  Packers 26, Steelers 21

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