Sunday, October 3, 2010

Division Series previews and predictions

Wow, what a regular season! It all came down to the last day to determine who was playing who in the playoffs in the American League and who would get the last two spots in the National League. Plus, there are five new teams in the playoffs this year, that were not in last year. Who says there is no parity in baseball? But, now it comes down to the quickest month for a sports fan, October and the short series, best of five or seven games to determine a winner and who moves on.

American League

Rangers vs. Rays

A series of two teams who did not make the playoffs last season, and of two who struggled down the stretch. The reason for this is because both clinched playoff spots relatively early, with no real struggle down the stretch. The Rays punched their ticket to the postseason on September 28, while the Rangers punched theirs on the 25th of September. Both teams are strong in the pitching department, especially in starting pitching and the closer role. The aces for each are quite comparable to each other, with David Price for the Rays and Cliff Lee for the Rangers. Both are left handers, both like to work fairly quickly and both have postseason experience. The difference being for Price is that his came out of the bullpen for the shockingly good 2008 Rays, and he has never started a postseason game, while Lee baffled seemingly everyone who faced him in last year's playoffs when he was with the Phillies.
The rest of the rotation for the Rangers, who are experiencing the postseason for the first time this century, is inexperienced, but good, they have their former closer C.J. Wilson set up to go in game two and Colby Lewis in game three. The Rays will probably have Price, Matt Garza and James Shields. It should be interesting with the pitching, but I think there will be a lot of offense, as both teams are loaded top to bottom with speed and mashers. The Rays big question is going to be is Evan Longoria going to be back to play sa he has been injured with a quad injury for the past week.
this series is going to go five, and really, I think it is a coin flip, but I'll go with the Rangers in game five and Lee, the Rangers have never won a postseason series in their three attempts, and they have got to do it sooner or later.

Pick: Rangers in 5.

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

The Minnesota Twins have not won a World Series since 1991, and the New York Yankees won just last season, on their way, they knocked out the Twins. The Twins are out for revenge, and this Yankees team looks to be the weakest of the ones they have faced since 2002. The Yankees rotation behind CC Sabathia is in shambles and you will not know what will happen behind them. The Twins rotation does not put fear in you, but they pitch to contact and they are consistent. Plus, the Twins have home field in the first round, which they have not had in the past against the Yankees. Plus, they seem to be a lot more comfortable in Target Field than they were at the Metrodome.
Granted, the Yankees have their usual cast of hitters, but in the playoffs, they say you cannot win without good pitching, and I think that's where the Yankees will falter. The Twins lineup is not the best, especially when Joe Mauer has not been hitting all that well and their former MVP Justin Morneau is out. The Twins will really need Delmon Young to continue to play well for them to keep up with the Yankees hitting. This series could go five as well, but I think that the Twins pull it out in four.

Pick: Twins in four.

National League

Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies

The defending National League champions are rolling on all cylinders right now. The Phillies have the best starting trio in all of the majors right now with H2O, Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt. Those three pitchers went 13-1 combined in the final month of the season. Roy Halladay is going to start game one for the Phillies. It's what he wanted once he came to Philadelphia in the offseason, after pitching for 12 seasons without a playoff appearance in Toronto. The Phillies have also been hitting very well, and they got back Jimmy Rollins, their spark plug at the top of the lineup just in time after a calf injury. Plus, the middle of the lineup with Jayson Werth, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, who all hit over 25 homers again seem to be rolling.
The Reds on the other hand are entering the postseason for the first time in 15 seasons. they are a young team without a care in the world seemingly. The Reds were in control over the weakest division in baseball, the central seemingly for the entire season. They really took control after the perennial champion Cardinals swept them in Cincinnati. The Reds then went on a tear while the Cardinals stumbled in August in September. The Reds do have a MVP canidate in Joey Votto who will be the key in the series for the Reds. Cincinnati also has some good pitchers going for them, with Edinson Volquez in game one, who has not faced the Phillies since 2008 and is 2-0 lifetime against them. Then, they have some good starting pitchers along with perhaps the most electrifying relief pitcher in the game, Aroldis Chapman, who throws 105 mph and throws a nasty slider. It could be an interesting series, but I just don't see the Phillies having too much trouble with the Reds.

Pick: Philadelphia in 3.

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves

These two teams waited until the final game of the season to punch their tickets to the postseason. The Giants won the NL West, while the Braves won the Wild Card thanks to the Giants winning over the Padres. Both teams are also coming into the postseason after playoff droughts of 5 for the Braves and 7 years for the Giants.
The Giants bread and butter is their starting pitching, that's what makes them go, they have three pitchers which rival the Phillies big three with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. The Giants offense has not done much, but is capable of doing a lot, with the Giants starting lineup looking somewhat different from their opening day lineup. The Giants brought in Pat Burrell to get offense from left field and they have potential Rookie of the Year Buster Posey behind the plate to replace Bengie Molina who they traded to Texas. Both Posey and Burrell are doing well, and could be trouble for the Braves. The Giants also have a lights out closer in Brian Wilson, who only blew five chances all year.
The Braves have come into the playoffs limping and have their entire infield different from opening day. Don't believe me? Well, a look around the diamond denotes that Chipper Jones was the opening day starter at third, now Omar Infante. Yunel Escobar at shortstop, now Alex Gonzalez. Martin Prado at second, now Brooks Conrad. Troy Glaus at first, now Derrek Lee. Plus, Infante and Conrad were originally supposed to be on the bench, but were pressed into starting through injuries. this team is a mismatch of players all around, with the only two starters playing in the same position from opening day being Rookie of the Year candidate Jason Heyward in right and Brian McCann at catcher. This team almost seems like a team of destiny for Bobby Cox's last season as manager with all of the mismatching and injuries to Jones, Prado, Jair Jurrjens at starter. But, like I said, ALMOST, as much as I'd like for Bobby Cox, one of the games classiest people to go out on top, he'll be knocked out in the first round.

Pick: San Francisco in 4.

5 comments:

  1. I have a thought for you, that I heard from Colin Cowherd and think is great: baseball needs to get rid of about one month of their regular season. It is too long. More than just that, by the time we get to meaningful baseball (Sept and Oct) football has begun and football dominates our country (don't believe me? I guarantee college and pro games will get bigger ratings than the world series [especially if the yankees do not get there). Baseball needs to end their season in August. Think about it: meaningful baseball in August when there are no other sports - baseball would dominate the headlines. And a shortened season with more teams in playoffs makes sense - why play 162 games only to have a season come down to a 3out of 5?

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  2. Dave... no offense but baseball has been playing 162 games for almost 50 years... changing that would be ridiculous! Not only that... for a game rich with tradition you don't just wipe out 30 games. Before they were 162 games they were 154. Even taking off 8 games would not get you an entire month of season back. It would change the game completely... records would change... and past records would be meaningless... why play 162 games to have it come down to 3 of 5...? That's the entire point... Baseball is THE sport where teams have to really earn their spot in the playoffs... but just like any sport... if you get hot at the right time, you get a shot. But you at least have to put yourself in the playoffs. This isn't basketball where you can coast to the playoffs, get hot and win a championship. You play 162 games to earn the right to play for the championship.

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  3. Though this is a bit off topic, I will continue with the above comments. Jason, I have to disagree with you and agree completely with David. It's ridiculous that this sport can have snow both in the beginning and the end of their season. It spans way too long. Only people who are REALLY into baseball, or sports in general I suppose, follow it all the way through. David brings up a valid point. Our country is moving away from it's baseball roots and turning more of it's attention towards football, both college and pro. I think baseball should start a few weeks later and end a few weeks earlier. The world series should end in sept or october, not november. So you're concerned about stats? the big shots are concerned about making money, that's probably why they haven't changed. Stat's won't really get affected by cutting a few games out. What would change? A percentage point or two, the chance to hit another home run, etc. Stats were already changed when they extended the season. The same could be said for extending the NFL season in the past and possibly doing it again, it changed things. But for something (baseball), in my opinion, declining in popularity, change needs to occur. That's what hockey did, they made change because they were getting put on the back burner. I also agree that if a big team like the Yankees doesn't go far, people don't watch it as much. The same goes for Hockey, when big teams don't go far, the Stanley cup is not watched as much.

    Now, to PJ and your article. I honestly am shocked that you picked the NY Yankees to go out first round, but I can see why. Despite how strong the Phills are, I don't know if they can pull it off in 3, but this will definitely be a good first round.

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  4. I love a good dialogue.

    Jason, you bring up baseball's problem- they are stuck in tradition. Who cares if they have played at least 154 games for nearly 100 years. People also rode horses for millennia...then a car was invented. Things change. Baseball did well when all we had was newspapers - you look at the stats everyday. People are busier now, who has time to follow baseball day in and day out (another reason football dominates)? If you want to succeed in life, you have to make changes when necessary.

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  5. I see that you borrowed my Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt nickname (H2O). Nice. Nice. Have to say that you write a pretty mean (and by mean I mean good) baseball preview/prediction for the playoffs. Jesus Christ is Lord!

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