Thursday, October 14, 2010

ALCS/NLCS Preview and prediction

Welcome to the League Championship Series, where it is the final four in baseball and things really start to get intense. We just came off of a no-hitter and the first game five since 2005 in the Division Series and now we get to see who will meet up in the World Series. Will it be a team who hasn't won it in over 50 years (Giants), a team who has never even won a postseason series before this year (Rangers, a team searching for its 29th title (Yankees) or a team who wants revenge upon last year's World Series (Phillies)?   Let's move on to the previews.

NLCS Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants

This is a very evenly matched series, with pretty much everything being a push except for two elements Number one is the lineup is shifted to the Phillies, who are loaded with great hitters nearly top to bottom. Then the other area where I think the balance is shifted is the bullpen, and that goes to the Giants.  Granted Brian Wilson gave blew a save in the Division Series against the Braves, but I still think he is better than Lidge and the entire bullpen is slightly better than the Phillies.
Otherwise, this series is dead even, and it will all come down to pitching, starting pitching. Which team will score a run first will more than likely win that particular game as all of these starters have been phenomenal down the stretch and in their careers. Game one matches Tim Lincecum who threw a complete game 2-hitter and the defending Cy Young award winner versus Roy Halladay, who threw a complete game no hitter and is the likely candidate to win the award this year. that game should be a must watch for most baseball fans just for the mastery in pitching.
But, as far as games 2-4 are concerned with pitching, both are very good matchups, as it's Matt Cain versus Roy Oswalt in game 2, Cain was brilliant in game two versus the Braves, only giving up one run and Roy Oswalt wants to redeem himself from the four runs he surrendered in game 2 versus Cincinatti.
Game 3 pits two great lefties against one another with Jonathan Sanchez versus Cole Hamels. Sanchez was very good in game three versus Atlanta, having a no hitter through six innings, while Hamels pitched a 5-hit shutout versus the Reds.
Game 4 is going to be somewhat of a toss up as Joe Blanton has not pitched since late September and could be rusty. Blanton was 4-0 in the month, but now is thrust into action. Blanton faced Madison Bumgarner and he pitched well against Atlanta in game 4, only allowing two runs through six innings.
But, as mentioned the Phillies lineup seems to be stacked from top to bottom, as every person is healthy and ready to play. But, they have not been hitting up to their potential, and could easily put up seven runs a game if everyone got going.  This is going to be a tough series no matter who wins, but I think with the Phillies lineup, they should be fine and win in six.
Prediction: Phillies in six.

ALCS: New York Yankees versus Texas Rangers

These teams met three times in the latter part of the 1990's and all three times the Rangers got kicked out of the playoffs in the first round. This year could be different for several reasons. One of them is Cliff Lee, who pitched brilliantly in the ALDS versus the Tampa Bay Rays and has beaten the Yankees before. See games one and five of last year's World Series for his dominance versus the Yankees for proof.  Another is that this Rangers team is coming in confident after winning their first postseason game in history.  Finally, this is the first time that the Rangers have had home field in the series. 
The Yankees on the other hand are coming in confident as well, as they are the defending champions and are primed to do it again, as the Yankees pounded the Minnesota Twins into oblivion, scoring at least five runs in the sweep. Plus, they have a dominant number one starter in CC Sabathia and the rest of the rotation which did look shaky in the latter part of the year was good again.  Plus, they have the best closer in postseason history with Mariano Rivera.
These teams met eight times in the regular season and split the series. So, it is hard to get a gauge on who has the edge where. But, I think the Yankees have the edge in every category, it is major in some areas and minor in others. Does that mean the Yankees will waltz right through this series? Probably not, as the Rangers will put up a fight though.
The Yankees edge is major when it comes to the bullpen, as previously mentioned with Rivera and a good set up man with former Indians closer Kerry Wood, who still is fooling hitters with his curve ball and blowing them away with a 96 mph fastball.  It is also major when it comes to manager, as Joe Girardi led this team to a World Series in his second year managing the team and knows how to make a game plan.
The Yankees advantage is minor when it comes to lineup, defense, and starting pitching. Lineup is because the Rangers are very good and when they get on, they know how to exploit runs. Game five versus the Rays was a prime example, as the Rangers got two runs on ground balls when the runner was at second base. but, the Yankees have a bevy of talented hitters and any one can mash it out of the park. The Yankees defense is also very good, but as is the Rangers. Although the Yankees starting pitching was fairly bad during September, they looked very good in the playoff series against Minnesota and the Rangers outside of Lee are good, but not great and could be intimidated by the Yankees.

Prediction: Yankees in 6.

2 comments:

  1. Minor discrepancy: Sanchez announced as game 2 starter for giants, cain game 3. Should be a fantastic series!

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  2. PJ, I'm curious. What has changed in the Yankees, other than advancing the first round, for you to pick them to win? If I am not mistaken you originally predicted them to lose in the first round. I am definitely excited about this final series as the Phillies are in it, and Lee is up against the Yankees again.

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