After another long offseason, we are now in the latter stages of Spring training for all clubs and the first game is the classic Boston Red Sox-New York Yankees rivalry to begin another 162 games of excitement culminating in the fall classic, World Series. The 2009 affair was won by the aforementioned Yankees over the 2008 world champion Philadelphia Phillies.
The offseason was scattered with a few trades here and there, but the two biggest ones involved both the Yankees and the Phillies. First, with the Yankees, they picked up a solid leadoff hitter in Curtis Granderson to make their hitting better, and Javier Vasquez, who pitched for them previously, in 2004. Then, the Phillies brought in Roy Halladay, the premier pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays in the past decade in exchange for Cliff Lee, who led the way in their only two World Series victories last season.
This blog will focus mainly on what the team brought in and what the team lost in the past offseason. Then make a short preview and prediction of where that team will finish in the division.
NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies
Who's in: SP Roy Halladay, 3B Placido Polanco, RP Jose Contreras, RP Danys Baez, C Brian Schneider, IF Juan Castro, Util Ross Gload
Who's Out: SP Cliff Lee, RP Scott Eyre, 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Brett Myers, RHP Clay Condrey, INF Eric Bruntlett, SP Pedro Martinez, RP Chan Ho Park
The Phillies have a very good lineup, with up to 7 players hitting 20 homers or more, the lone exception being catcher Carlos Ruiz. They also have some speed in the lineup with center fielder Shane Victorino, right fielder Jayson Werth, and shortstop Jimmy Rollins providing that. Then, with defense, they are very solid at all positions except for maybe third base, with Polanco. Polanco has not played there since 2002 and he's 34 years old, so you wonder what kind of range he has.
Finally, the pitching, Starting Pitching looks to be good, not great. They have Halladay, who will be the solidified ace, as he has won at least 12 games in 7 of the past 8 seasons. Then Cole Hamels, who will try to return to his dominant form in the 2008 postseason, where he was named MVP of both the NLCS and World Series. Joe Blanton will probably put up his requisite 12 wins and 10 losses, J.A. Happ who will try to improve upon his 12-4 rookie season. Finally, the fifth starter will fall to 48-year old Jamie Moyer who will baffle hitters with his stuff and they'll get 5-7 innings out of him every start. The big problem is the bullpen. The problems are they only have one left hander, and will Brad Lidge be dominant again? Finally can they stay healthy? My answer is they won't remain entirely healthy, but they have enough depth to hold off the Braves.
But, with all that being said, they will still probably come out with 90 wins and their 3rd straight division title.
Prediction: 1st
Atlanta Braves
Who's in: RP Billy Wagner, OF Melky Cabrera, RP Scott Proctor, RP Takashi Saito, RP Jesse Chavez, 1B/3B Troy Glaus, RF Eric Hinske, INF Joe Thurston, RF Jason Heyward
Who's Out: SP Javier Vazquez, LF Garret Anderson, OF Ryan Church, RP Mike Gonzalez, RP Rafael Soriano, 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B Adam LaRoche, 1B/OF Greg Norton, SP Buddy Carlyle, RP Boone Logan
With this being manager Bobby Cox's final season with the team before taking an advisory role with the team, the team will probably help try to make him go out a winner. The problem with that is that there are many questions with the team. Will Jason Heyward be the superstar he is projected to be? Who will be the closer? How will Troy Glaus do at first base? Will everyone stay healthy? Those are all things that need to be answered throughout the season. My personal feelings are the following on each of the questions are as follows. Yes, Heyward will be a superstar, he will have the following stat line: .273, 28 HR, 88 RBI and rookie of the year honors. The closer role will be split between Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner, as neither of them can pitch every day as they are older, but should get about 15 saves each. Troy Glaus will have his issues, but will be ok at first, both defensively and offensively. Glaus will have about 10 errors at first while hitting 20 HR and driving in 85 runs. Everyone will not stay healthy, as inevitably there will be injuries and at least one of those will be catastrophically bad. Glaus, Chipper Jones, Saito or Wagner will all go down on the DL for at least 1 stint, but one of them will go down as a season ending injury. But, the lineup looks to be good.
The starting pitching is probably the best in the division with Lowe, Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, and Kawakami.Each pitcher is capable of a sub-4 ERA and getting at least 12 wins each. The relief pitching is a question mark, as they are old in the bullpen, but should be ok. But, the Braves will pull through and get the wild card in the NL with 88 wins.
Prediction: 2nd, but Wild Card
Florida Marlins
Who's in: RP Jose Veras, RP Seth McClung, INF Hector Luna, INF Mike Lamb, INF Brian Barden
Who's out: RP Scott Proctor, 1B Ross Gload, RF Jeremy Hermida, 1B Nick Johnson, RP Brendan Donnelly, RP Kiko Calero, RP Matt Lindstrom, OF Alfredo Amezaga
The Marlins have a very good young core of players led by Hanley Ramirez, 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, Jorge Cantu, and Dan Uggla. All of those players are very good defensively and offensively both with speed and power. Ramirez, Uggla, and Coghlan are all capable of 20/20 seasons. Meaning, they can hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases.
Then, the starting rotation is led by Josh Johnson, who just received a contract extension. Then there is some other young starters in Anibal Sanchez, who already has pitched a no hitter, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad. All four of those pitchers should be able to post ERAs of under 4 and produce about 20 quality starts each. (Q.S. is 6IP with 3ER or less).
The questions are at the corner infield spots and the bullpen. The questions at first base seem to be answered by Gaby Sanchez, but he is essentially a rookie coming in. Then in the bullpen, the closer situation is not a good one. They do not have a chosen closer and it will probably be a revolving door and see who pops out first. Their youth and inexperience is why I've chosen them to finish narrowly behind the Braves for the wild card.
Prediction: 3rd
New York Mets
Who's in: LF Jason Bay, CF Gary Matthews Jr., RP Ryota Igarashi, C Rod Barajas, RP Kelvim Escobar, INF Alex Cora, C Henry Blanco
Who's Out: 1B Carlos Delgado, RP J.J. Putz, LF Gary Sheffield, C Brian Schneider, RP Brian Stokes, SP Tim Redding, OF Cory Sullivan, OF Jeremy Reed, RP Lance Broadway
The Mets tried to get better via free agency, but it did not work out too well, as the only big time player they landed was Jason Bay, who will be somewhat of a bust. The reason why is because he's going from a pretty good hitters park to a big time pitchers park in Citi Field. My prediction is he will hit .275 with 25 homers and 90 RBI. Then the lineup looks very good, with Bay, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo being the core of it. The combination of Bay, Wright, and first basemen Daniel Murphy should provide a lot of power, with each hitting about 25 home runs. They have the speed with Castillo and Reyes as well.
Then, the starting pitching has a solid ace at the top with Johan Santana, but after that it falls off into oblivion with John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese. That does not scream amazing in a park built for pitching. Maine and Perez looked to be solid 4th starters in 2007, but they have not been doing too well since.
Finally, the bullpen looks to be good, with Francisco Rodriguez looking to be very good again, as he had 83 saves over the past 2 seasons and then Pedro Feliciano will return as the setup man to K-Rod. The biggest question will be can they stay healthy? As previously stated, no, and the Mets have had more than their share of injuries over the past few years. They have already had trouble with Jose Reyes, their star shortstop had thyroid inflammation. The Mets will again have trouble with health and it will go prevent them from succeeding.
Prediction: 4th
Washington Nationals
Who's in: C Ivan Rodriguez, SP Jason Marquis, SP Chien-Ming Wang, RP Brian Bruney, RP Tyler Walker, 2B Adam Kennedy, OF Willy Taveras, SP/RP Miguel Batista
Who's Out: RP Mike MacDougal, OF Austin Kearns, 1B Dmitri Young, C Josh Bard, RP Saul Rivera, RP Ron Villone, OF Elijah Dukes
Everyone in the know with baseball knows that the Nationals are going to struggle, and struggle mightily to not lose 100 games for the second straight season. The biggest thing for Nationals fans is wondering when number 1 pick Stephen Strasburg is going to come up from AA Harrisburg. The lineup will have 2 big boppers in Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman from the corner infield positions. They will combine for at least 70 homers for the Nationals. To complement the power from Zimmerman and Dunn, the Nats have plenty of speed with Nyjer Morgan, Willie Harris and Adam Kennedy who are all capable of stealing 20 or more bases.
They brought in Ivan Rodriguez who will provide stability for the starting rotation, which will need a veteran catcher like Rodriguez because they will struggle mightily. The reason the rotation will struggle mightily is because of their youth. There are 2 veterans on the staff in Marquis and the ageless Livan Hernandez. But, mainly they have some good young talent with John Lannan, J.D. Martin, and Craig Stammen. Then the bullpen doesn't look to be good either. Does Matt Capps sound like a quality closer to you? Finally, they will be horrifically bad because of their defense, which led the majors in errors last season with 143. Dunn had 8 of them in just 67 games last season.
Prediction: Last
AL East
New York Yankees
Who's in: OF Curtis Granderson, RP Chan Ho Park, OF Marcus Thames, OF Randy Winn, 1B/DH Nick Johnson, SP Javier Vasquez
Who's Out: OF Johnny Damon, RP Phil Coke, DH Hideki Matsui, SP Ian Kennedy, RP Chad Gaudin, OF Melky
Cabrera
The defending World Series champs look better than last year, if that can be believed, even as they lost Johhny Damon, the World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, and Melky Cabrera. But, they improved at each position, no Damon, bring in Curtis Granderson, one of the premier leadoff men in the AL. No Matsui, bring in Johnson who knows the Yankee system, as he was there before. No Cabrera, bring up Brett Gardner. Then, they improve their starting pitching by getting Vasquez, a solid number 2 for most teams, but a number 4 pitcher here. The Yankees starting pitching is loaded with talent from top to bottom. They have CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettite and Phil Hughes. It's insane how much they have. Compliment that with an outstanding lineup which has both Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, wow. Finally, they have one of the best closers ever in Mariano Rivera. It's a lock for them to win this division again and move forward from there.
Prediction: 1st
Boston Red Sox
Who's in: SS Marco Scutaro, OF Jeremy Hermida, SP John Lackey, OF Mike Cameron, 3B Adrian Beltre, UTIL Bill Hall, IF Kevin Frandsen
Who's Out: C George Kottaras (C); SS Alex Gonzalez (SS); RP Takashi Saito (RHP);RP Billy Wagner (LHP); OF Jason Bay, 1BCasey Kotchman, SS Nick Green, OF Rocco Baldelli, SP Paul Byrd
The Red Sox probably have the best rotation in all of the majors with former World Series winners John Lackey and Josh Beckett anchoring it at the top, followed by young guns Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester, and as the five guy Daisuke Matsuzaka who has never fully lived up to his potential here in the U.S. The Red Sox also have a fairly good lineup, much like the Phillies. The Sox lineup consists of speed with Scutaro, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and to a lesser extent Mike Cameron who is still speedy but not as much at 37. They also have power with Cameron, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez, J.D. Drew, Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz. The Sox also have a solid bullpen with Jonathon Papelbon as the closer and Hideki Okajima and Daniel Bard being very serviceable setup men.
Prediction: 2nd, but with wild card.
Tampa Bay Rays
Who's in: RHP Rafael Soriano, C Kelly Shoppach, RHP Joaquin Benoit
Who's out: 2B Akinori Iwamura, OF Gabe Gross, RHP Chad Bradford
The Rays slipped a little bit from their 2008 form when they made a spectacular run to the World Series to 84 wins in 2009 and no postseason. But, they still have the vast majority of that 2008 team still intact and they still got a boatload of young talent, beginning with the starting pitching. All five of the starting pitchers are no more than 28 years old, and all but Wade Davis, who came up late last season had at least 8 wins last season. The problem with the Rays last season was that their bullpen was crushed by injuries, most notably to closer Troy Percival who never came back and they had to settle for J.P. Howell as their closer who did not perform up to Percival's level. The lineup again looks to be good and loaded with power, as every person can hit 20 homers. The biggest problem for the Rays is that they cannot realistically compete for the division or wild card because the Yankees and Red Sox are just much more talented than they are, which is unfortunate.
Prediction: 3rd, falling 2 games short of the wild card.
Baltimore Orioles
Who's in: SP Kevin Millwood, 3B Miguel Tejada, RP Mike Gonzalez, 3B Garrett Atkins,OF Joey Gathright
Who's out: RP Chris Ray,3BMelvin Mora, RP Brian Bass ,RP Danys Baez
The Orioles are in a class with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals where they have had a recent history of losing, and losing a lot after glory days in the 70s through about 1996, when the Orioles last had a winning record. There is some hope in Baltimore though, as they are developing younger talent while trying to balance it with some older, yet still capable veterans. The young talent comes from Matt Wieters, a Joe Mauer type catcher who has all the tools to be great. Wieters is home grown and has a lot of hitting for average and power, a good feel for the pitchers and a strong arm. Their is outher Young Talent with Brian Roberts who is a pheonomenal second baseman who can cover a lot of ground and hit for .300, 20 homers and 90 RBI every year. Finally, their is Adam Jones, who came over from Seattle for Erik Bedard a few years ago. Jones has very similar talent to Roberts, but with more speed.
The O's weakest area is pitching though. Their ace is Kevin Millwood who should provide a lot of stability and innings for a very young staff who need a mentor. Millwood will provide the lowest ERA and the most amount of wins, followed by promising Jeremy Guthrie. The closer is former Braves setup man Mike Gonzalez who will get 30 saves because even a bad team normally gets 30 saves out of their closer.
Prediction: 4th, but may surprise with 80 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays
Who's in: C John Buck, SP Dana Eveland, OF Jeremy Reed, SP Brandon Morrow, RP Kevin Gregg, C Jose Molina, SS Alex Gonzalez
Who's out: SP Roy Halladay,RP Brandon League, DH/1B Kevin Millar,C Rod Barajas,C Michael Barrett, RP Joe Inglett, RP Brian Wolfe, SS Marco Scutaro
As Jayson Stark put it: "it's year one A.D. "After Doc" in Toronto" after trading away their best pitcher ever in Roy "Doc" Halladay to the Phillies. The Jays will not contend for a little bit, say 5 years after this season as they will try to reduce their payroll even more for more prospects. The leading candidates for trade are: Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, and Kevin Gregg. Their is hope for the Jays now though. Gone are the years of overspending on lesser free agents, finishing 3rd and being around .500 for the year. They are now trying to develop home grown talent and hope for success.
While they are trying to rebuild, prepare for a long season in Toronto with 100 losses.
Prediction: 5th
Note: some info was obtained from :http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/news/indexsn.aspx?sport=AA
Look out for my NL and AL central preview/predictions for later in the week.
No comments:
Post a Comment