This blog edition will feature the Central divisions from both the AL and the NL. The champions of each division last year were the Minnesota Twins after an amazing tiebreaker game with the Detroit Tigers, who then fell to the New York Yankees in a series which featured some of the worst calls in recent playoff memory. In the NL, it was the St. Louis Cardinals who fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. Will there be different champions this year? Read on and find out.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Who's in:SS J.J. Hardy, RP Clay Condrey, DH Jim Thome, 2B Orlando Hudson
Who's out: RP/SP Boof Bonser, OF Carlos Gomez, UTIL Justin Huber, SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede, C Mike Redmond, OF Jason Pridie, RP Bobby Keppel
While you may think of the Twins as a "small" market club with a payroll down in the lower third of the league, they are certainly not that anymore, as they went out and signed some good, quality veterans and also inked MVP and hometown boy Joe Mauer to the richest contract in history for a catcher.
The Twins may have lost a few pieces in Cabrera and Crede, they just traded for Hardy to solidify the position both defensively and offensively, provided he can stay healthy. As he has not completed an entire season in his career. But, if he does stay healthy, the Twins can expect 20 homers, 75 RBI and less than 15 errors in the field from him. As for third base, they simply move Nick Punto from second to third who should not suffer a big falloff in fielding as he has played third before. They have improved in the DH department by signing Thome to a one-year deal and he will provide a little bit more pop in the lineup. Then, there is the MVP Joe Mauer, who, without having to worry about a contract extension should put up MVP type numbers again in a full season. As, you may recall, he was out for all of April last year.
Then, there is the starting rotation which has everyone back and should be a strong point in new Target Field, which should be fairly balanced as a hitters and pitchers park. The biggest question with the rotation is Francisco Liriano. Can he perform to his filthy good 2006 season before falling into arm trouble? My bet is yes, he still has the stuff to fool hitters and it's been a few seasons since Tommy John surgery.
But, the biggest question mark of them all is who is going to close for this team, as Joe Nathan, one of the more dominant closers in the AL went down for the season with elbow problems. As his replacement, the Twins signed Joe Rauch, who had 17 saves for the Nationals as recently as 2008. Rauch will have a tough task, but since he has had some experience closing, he should be able to handle the job as the Twins repeat.
Prediction: 1st
Detroit Tigers
Who's in: RP Jose Valverde, OF/DH Johnny Damon (OF), RP Phil Coke, RP Max Scherzer,RP Daniel Schlereth, RP Brad Thomas
Who's out: OF Curtis Granderson, SP Edwin Jackson,2B Placido Polanco,1B/3B Aubrey Huff,RP Brandon Lyon,RP Fernando Rodney,RP Freddy Dolsi,SP Jarrod Washburn,RP Nate Robertson
The Tigers almost singlehandedly brought fans in to the ballpark, and into the city of Detroit even as the automakers were begging Washington for bailouts last season. They were doing so very well until the final four days of last season, as they blew a 3 game lead with four to play. Reference 2007 New York Mets for choke artistry at its finest. They still had the chance to win the division outright with a one game playoff at the Minnesota Twins, but lost it in heartbreaking fashion 6-5 in 12 innings. To add insult to injury for the Tigers, they traded away arguably their best all around hitter and arguably their best starting pitcher for mainly prospects. But, there is reason for hope still for the Tigers, as they can still hit, and they can hit a lot of homers. They still have Magglio Ordonez, who, while coming off the worst season of his career, does have the potential to hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs. The other guy that can do the exact same thing is Miguel Cabrera, who made a smooth transition from third base to first last season. There is some downside in that there is no quintessential leadoff hitter, the best they have is Austin Jackson, who is a solid .300 hitter and has a lot of speed with an anverage of 20 steals the past two seasons. But, he must cut down on his strikeouts, which he had plenty of in the minors.
The rotation looks very good, as Justin Verlander has Cy Young award winner written all over him, now that Roy Halladay is in the NL. Verlander can strike out 200 in a year and provide a lot of innings. Then, to replace Edwin Jackson, they have young Rick Porcello, who finished third in the rookie of the year voting last season, and for good reason, as he had 14 wins and a sub-4 ERA, which is superb in the AL. In place of Washburn, who they picked up from Seattle in a deadline deal, they have Max Scherzer, who is a flame thrower and can strike out 200 men. The biggest questions will come at the back end of the rotation with Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis who have struggled mightily in the past few seasons. My guess is that one of them will take off and improve and the other will continue to struggle.
The bullpen looks to be the best part of the team, with Jose Valverde providing a very good closer and Schlereth and Coke will be solid set up men.
Prediction: 2nd.
Chicago White Sox
Who's in: 3B Mark Teahen, SS Omar Vizquel, OF Andruw Jones, RP J.J. Putz, OF Juan Pierre
Who's out: OF Jermaine Dye, OF Dewayne Wise, OF Scott Podsednik, RP D.J. Carrasco, RP Octavio Dotel
The White Sox have a lot of talent, especially the starting rotation, which has amazing pitchers Jake Peavy and Mark Buehrle, who threw a perfect game last year. Peavy was also the prize of the trading deadline last year, or was supposed to be until he got injured. Now, the White Sox are hoping he has fully healed and can return to Cy Young type form. Then, they have three other solid pitchers in Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Freddy Garcia, who all should put up double digit wins and sub 4.5 ERAs.
The lineup then looks very experienced. But, with experience comes age, and with age comes slow declines in numbers. That is what this lineup is, comprised of veterans who may or may not produce. I think they should have some good years, but expect each number to go down around 5 homers, and 10 RBI on the average for each veteran player, with Gordon Beckham, entering his second season and first full year picking up 5 homers and 10 RBI and the same goes fro Alexi Ramirez who should continue to improve.
Finally, Bobby Jenks should continue to perform well in the closers role.
But, they really are on par with the Tigers, and should compete for the division title with them and the Twins.
Prediction: T-2nd
Kansas City Royals
Who's in: OF Rick Ankiel, OF Scott Podsednik, C Jason Kendall, 2B Chris Getz, UTIL Josh Fields, OF Brian Anderson, RP Edgar Osuna, RP Gaby Hernandez
Who's out: OF Coco Crisp, C Miguel Olivo, 1B Mike Jacobs, C John Buck, 3B Mark Teahen, SP Bruce Chen, RP John Bale,RP Doug Waechter, SP Jamey Wright
As mentioned before with the Orioles, the Royals used to be a proud franchise, but have struggled mightily with the exception of 2003, when they had a winning record under Tony Pena. There is a ray, possibly 2 of hope for the Royals with Zack Grienke, the AL Cy Young award winner last year who gives them a bonafide ace every fifth day. The other possible ray of hope comes from oft-injured third baseman Alex Gordon who hopes to brwak out into a 35 homer 110 RBI type guy, or at least that's what the Royals are hoping for. The Royals will need them to perform incredibly well, and have Ankiel be a 25 homer man, and have first year start Billy Butler also be a very good power hitter for them to have any chance of competing in the division.
Prediction: 4th, unless everything goes well, they'll lose 90 games.
Cleveland Indians
Who's in: 1B Russell Branyan, C Mike Redmond, SP Mitch Talbot, OF Austin Kearns, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, OF Shelley Duncan, 3B Brian Buscher, RP Saul Rivera, RP Jamey Wright, RP Jason Grilli
Who's out: INF Jamey Carroll, C Kelly Shoppach, SP Jose Veras, RP Tomo Ohka, RP Zach Jackson
It is so hard to believe that the Indians were 1 win from the World Series in 2007. My how much has changed in the 29 moths since. Cleveland is in full fledged rebuilding mode now, as they are trying to salary dump anybody they can. In 2009, they traded away their best pitcher, Cliff Lee in exchange for some pretty good Phillies prospects. Then, they also lost a few role players in Ben Francisco, Mark DeRosa, and Ryan Garko. Cleveland may trade away Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore for more prospects which they can pop in right away and develop down the road.
The rotation is also a work in progress with the only proven starter being Jake Westbrook, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and is a questionable at best "ace".
The bullpen doesn't look any better with injury prone Kerry Wood as the closer. The Indians will struggle all around, but they do have a manager who knows how to deal with losing in Manny Acta, who has managed the Nationals in the past.
Prediction: 5th, and will stay there for at least 2 years.
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Who's in: IF Felipe Lopez, SP Brad Penny
Who's out: 3B Mark DeRosa, SP Joel Pineiro, SP John Smoltz, IF Joe Thurston, 3b Troy Glaus, OF Rick Ankiel, RP Todd Wellemeyer, RP Brad Thompson
The biggest splash the Cardinals made in the offseason was the hiring of new hitting coach Mark McGwire, who admitted he used steroids during his playing career. Who would've guessed that? But, supposedly McGwire has worked with Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols in the past and is a very good hitting coach, let's see if that proves true.
The spectacular Pujols and Holliday provide the majority of the power on this team, while everyone else is essentially role players. There is speed here, and that will come from Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus. But, this will again be a solid lineup with a tough out no matter where you look.
The pitching along with Pujols and Holliday looks to be the strength of this team. The starting rotation has 4 really good starters who are all capable of getting 15 wins and getting sub 3.5 ERAs. But, they look to be the most stable team of the division.
Prediction: 1st
Cincinnatti Reds
Who's in: SS Orlando Cabrera, LHP Aroldis Chapman
Who's out: OF Willy Taveras
The Reds are a shocking pick to see here I'm sure, as they haven't had a winning record since 2000, but they do have some good players, who just need to live up to their full potential. They have a very good manager in Dusty Baker, and they only changed very slightly, as seen above by bringing in veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera and Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.
The lineup looks to be very good and balanced with a good mix of speed and power. The only question looks to be in the outfield, as only one of the three, Jay Bruce looks to be a lock in right field. The rest of the outfield looks to be fairly uncertain with Drew Stubbs and Jonny Gomes as the favorites in center and left respectively.
Chapman looks to be like Joba Chamberlain with the Yankees, starting out in the pen while slowly moving into the rotation and he has looked spectacular in the Spring, throwing fastballs over 100 while mixing in a devastating curve. The starting rotation should eat up a lot of innings with Aaron Harang looking to bounce back to his 2008 form, and Bronson Arroyo looking to be good as well, and having 12 wins as a realistic goal.
Finally, the bullpen looks good with Francisco Cordero holding down the fort for the closers role.
Prediction: 2nd
Chicago Cubs
Who's in: CF Marlon Byrd, 1B Chad Tracy, OF Xavier Nady, RP Jeff Gray, RP Carlos Silva
Who's out: RF Milton Bradley, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg, IF Aaron Miles, IF Jake Fox, OF Reed Johnson, RP Aaron Heilman
The Cubs had a down year in 2009, as they did not win their third straight division title, and they did not look good until the second half of the year.
The Cubs look very good again, and should contend for the division and wild card, but they aren't called the loveable losers for nothing, hence the third place prediction. The lineup and defense look very good, with Derrek Lee having his perennial gold glove year at first, while hitting 35 homers last year. Then, with Geovanny Soto behind the plate performing well again, just as he has since his rookie year in 2009. Then, they have Kosuke Fukudome who really hasn't had the amazing success here as he did in Japan.
Chicago's bullpen looks solid with Carlos Marmol looking to have another 35 save season, and the starting rotation essentially has 3 number 3 starters and a number 4, and someone from Pittsburgh who will probably succeed, as anywhere other than Pittsburgh someone succeeds. The 3 number 3 starters are: Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano. The reason why Zambrano is considered a number 3 starter for me, is that he just has lost some stuff, and he'll still win about 12 games.
Prediction: 3rd
Milwaukee Brewers
Who's in: C Gregg Zaun, CF Carlos Gomez, SP Randy Wolf, SP Doug Davis, C George Kottaras, IF Joe Inglett, OF Jim Edmonds, RP LaTroy Hawkins
Who's out: C Jason Kendall, 2B Felipe Lopez, SS J.J. Hardy, CF Mike Cameron, SP Braden Looper, C Mike Rivera, OF Frank Catalanotto, RP David Weathers, RP Seth McClung
As with the Cubs and Rays, the Brewers did not achieve the postseason as they did in 2008, due mainly to the loss of CC Sabathia and a rash of injuries to their starting rotation. But, the core of the team remains intact from that 2008 wild card team. The only big change is that they traded J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. On paper, it looks to be a very even trade, as you trade players who play up the middle and hit and field about the same, so that's a wash. Plus, they have high hopes for young Alcides Escobar, who they hope will be the rookie of the year at short. They still have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, and it will be imperative for the Brewers to try and sign both of them to long term deals. If they can't, then they will need to trade one of the two, especially if they find that they are out of the race by the deadline. Both Braun and Fielder should put up excellent numbers once again and combine for most of the offense.
The starting pitching looks good, but not overwhelmingly great, as each of the five starters is going to keep them in a game, and probably have a quality start, as all of them are veteran pitchers who can get the job done fairly well. They signed Davis and Wolf to do exactly that, be innings eaters and give up 3 ER or less each game to go along with their "ace" Yovani Gallardo who simply couldn't handle the pressure of it last year as Sabathia left for New York.
But, the problem I see is that the division is just too balanced from top to bottom, hence why the fourth position, but the top four teams will only be separated by 10 games tops.
Prediction: 4th
Houston Astros
Who's in: 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Brett Myers, RP Brandon Lyon, OF Cory Sullivan, RP Matt Lindstrom
Who's out: SS Miguel Tejada, SP Mike Hampton, RP Jose Valverde, C Chris Coste, OF Darin Erstad, RP LaTroy Hawkins, RP Doug Brocail
The biggest reason for Houston being in the middle of the pack each year and not contending for the division every year like they were in the late '90s and first half of this decade is because of their GM, Ed Wade who grabs mediocre players, mainly from his old stomping grounds in Philly and transplants them here, making it essentially Phillies of the South.
A prime example of that philosophy came this offseason when Wade brought in Myers and Feliz to take over the 3rd spot in the rotation and give Feliz the third base job over Geoff Blum, who handled it well offensively, but defensively is definitely an upgrade as Feliz provided gold glove caliber at the hot corner for the Phils in his three seasons there.
The Astros will again hover around the 75 win mark, because they are just mediocre at every position. Lance Berkman is still productive, but at 34, he's getting older and less productive, Kaz Matsui is an average second baseman defensively who puts up very average numbers, and the list goes on, hence why they are just average here.
Starting pitching is better than average, but not much better, as Roy Oswalt is not the pitcher he was in 2005, and Wandy Rodriguez is still developing, and Brett Myers is average, why do you think the Phils let him go?
Prediction: 5th
Pittsburgh Pirates
Who's in: RP Octavio Dotel, UTIL Bobby Crosby, 2B Akinori Iwamura, RP Chris Jakubauskas,RP Javier Lopez, OF Ryan Church, RP D.J. Carrasco, RP Brendan Donnelly
Who's out: RP Jesse Chavez, RP/SP Phil Dumatrait, RP Matt Capps
Basically, all you need to know is that the Pirates finally signed everyone they think will be good to long term deals and Andrew McCutchen will be the All-Star representative for this team many years in a row starting now. Otherwise, don't look for much from the Pirates anytime soon.
Prediction: 6th, maybe lose 100 games.
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