I've decided to follow after my friend and fellow blogger Jason by picking the 10 best football games each week. There are two notable differences in my blog and his blog. The first is that I'm covering both college and the pros with these 10 games. The second noticeable difference is that I'm only picking 10 games versus his 15. This week, I'm essentially copying it, with his consent, as I agree with it. If you'd like the entire 15 games of his excellent post, plesae go to thefroshfifteen.blogspot.com!
1. Boise State vs. Virginia Tech
Might as well start with the main course. The last game of the sprawling opening weekend is the best one, and shouldn't disappoint. Both teams have tons to lose in this one, which could go one of two ways: play conservative, close to the vest, not to lose; or to go for broke, turn to the last page of the playbook, play loose and risky. Judging by the traditional styles of these two, I'd bank on the latter. By now we all know that this is basically Boise State's entire season - lose and you can kiss the BCS goodbye. But you could argue that Virginia Tech has more to lose - a loss here would carry with it some embarrassment, as they'd be the bully BCS program who couldn't knock the Broncos into their proverbial place, and the Hokies have a decent national title shot as well. Lose Monday night and you might as well throw that in the trash too - a lot would have to happen for a one-loss ACC team to slip into Glendale. As far as what will happen on the field, I like Virginia Tech for one primary reason: they've had all summer to prepare for this game. Boise State is essentially the same team as last year, and the Broncos won't have the luxury of sneaking up unnoticed. The Hokies know the Boise will try to throw trick plays at them; they'll be prepared, even if the play is something no one has seen in the history of football (a distinct possibility). And if you give a top 20 defense, like Virginia Tech's, ample time to prepare, they'll find a weakness and a way to stop you. By now they must know every pore on Kellen Moore's face by heart. If there's a chink in his armor, they'll find it. Expect a close, entertaining game, but look for Boise's dream to die in week one.
Virginia Tech, 27, Boise State 24
2. Oregon State vs. TCU
If you read this blog last week, you're fully aware I'm picking TCU. They're a complete team this year - plenty of offense to go with their characteristic defensive ferocity. Oregon State has been a massive overachiever under Mike Riley, but they're prone to slow starts. That doesn't bode well when they open in what's essentially a road game against a top 10 opponent.
TCU 31, Oregon State 16
3. Pittsburgh at Utah
Pitt will be a very good team this year, but they're schedule may do them in and keep them out of the BCS. This may not look like too difficult a game, but Utah hasn't lost at home since 2007. They've still got a solid power running game, and sophomore QB Jordan Wynn has a solid year behind him. The Utes will be able to keep a good Pitt defense off balance, which, combined with some big home field advantage, could be enough, no matter how many yards Dion Lewis rattles off. Don't forget that Pitt's also starting a green QB, on the road, against a team that should be ranked.
Utah 23, Pittsburgh 17
4. LSU vs. North Carolina
After trashing Jordan Jefferson and the LSU offense last week, you'd think I'd be staying away from picking them like Lane Kiffin stays away from small roadhouse bars outside of Knoxville. But you'd be wrong. The turmoil at North Carolina has to be a distraction, and the suspension of Marvin Austin is huge. Plus, the types of teams that will give LSU fits this year aren't just teams with formidable defenses, they'll be the teams who pair those defensive units with a good QB and players who can stretch the field. LSU's defense is pretty stout, and I realized this week that I'd underestimated it a bit. The Tar Heels do not fit that criteria. T.J. Yates is unproven, and apart from WR Greg Little, they don't have anyone who'll scare the LSU defense. Low scoring and rugged will be the theme, with LSU winning on timely turnovers.
LSU 16, North Carolina 7
5. Purdue at Notre Dame
The Brian Kelly era begins, and if you'd believe some of the hype beaming from South Bend, you'd think they were a BCS shoo-in. Make no mistake about it, Kelly is a proven winner, but he's not a miracle worker. Notre Dame has some major holes to fill on defense, and Purdue has the offensive tools and system to give them fits. It'll be a shootout, but I don't think the Irish can get the stops they need to prevail.
Purdue 41, Notre Dame 34
6. Southern Mississippi at South Carolina
All the talk surrounding Spurrier's focus and his choice of using 2 QB's is overblown. He's done it before, and won by it before, and I think he still feels that he has something to prove at South Carolina. If not, he'd have left several years ago. I think he feels his work's not done until he leads them to a division crown. Probably won't happen this year, but the talent level is rising, and the Gamecocks will surprise some folks this year. And is it me, or does South Carolina play on the opening Thursday every year? Did I miss something? Are the contractually obligated to by some obscure ESPN byline?
South Carolina 30, Southern Mississippi 20
7. Connecticut at Michigan
Interesting matchup, and could make for a great little Saturday afternoon game. Connecticut is the better team, but RichRod is no stranger to Randy Edsall's style. And though the Big House has rolled out the red carpet for visitors recently, it's still huge and visually intimidating. Michigan, as much as it pains me to say it, will be better this year, and should be able to clip UConn.
Michigan 23, Connecticut 20
8. Illinois vs. Missouri
Well, this used to be a tantalizing early season rivalry. Then Ron Zook happened. Missouri may roll up half a hundred - Blaine Gabbert might be the most underrated QB in America.
Missouri 45, Illinois 17
9. Kentucky at Louisville
Another regional rivalry. I'm sure the state of Kentucky is all a-twitter over it, but that's mostly because there can't be much else to get excited about down there. Is it breeding season? Maybe time to bottle the next batch of whiskey? No? Well, let's turn on UK and UofL then. It ain't basketball, but we can pretend!
Kentucky 34, Louisville 24
10. UCLA at Kansas State
We're knee deep in the boredom of week one's only remotely attractive BCS conference vs. BCS conference affairs. It's hard to believe that ABC's 3:30 lineup consists of this, UK-UL, and UConn-Michigan. Talk about reaching. Most people expect UCLA to be pretty competitive, but I'm not sold on Rick Neuheisel. If I remember correctly, Colorado under his watch was barely more than average. Not sure where the "soon will be equal with USC" talk is coming from. With Bill Snyder at K-State, you do get a proven commodity. Look no further than last year, when he had the Wildcats in range of a Big 12 North title in November. He's got a little more talent this year, and his craftiness will lead them back to a bowl game, and certainly past UCLA.
Kansas State 21, UCLA 16
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