March Madness is about to get underway, with the "first four" games starting on Tuesday. Allow the upsets to begin. There are several new things with this years tournament.
Well, you may ask what is new? Well, for the first time ever, the tournament will be broadcast over four networks. With the perennial leader CBS pairing up with Turner Sports to bring you the tournament on CBS, TBS, TNT, and a network called trutv. Trutv is formerly known as CourtTV.
Then, there are now 68 teams in the tournament, compared to the former 65 since 2001. With those three newest teams, that creates the new "first four" games in Dayton. How that works out is that the last four teams into the tournament as at-large teams will square off in two games to play their way into the regular bracket. That also goes with four teams from horrible conferences such as the Southland with Texas-San Antonio, the Big South with North Carolina-Asheville, and the Sun Belt with Arkansas-Little Rock.
Now, who are my final four teams? Out of the East bracket, there is North Carolina, the Southeast we have Jimmer and BYU, the Southwest I'll put in Kansas, and in the West I got Connecticut, after their historic run in the toughest conference tournament in the country, they will be in the final four!
But, as far as the Pennsylvania teams are concerned, all of them are going to be out before the second weekend. Pittsburgh has a tough game in the second round with either Butler or Old Dominion. Then, Temple and Penn State are playing each other in the first round. But, whoever wins out of that, has to face the best team San Diego State has ever put out, and SDSU will move on to the sweet 16. Bucknell is facing one of my final four teams in the first round, Connecticut, so they're out first day. Finally, since Villanova has been on such a downslide, losing five straight, I will pick them to lose against 2006 cinderella George Mason.
Then, as far as the second round is concerned, the upsets I see are Tennessee over Michigan, Memphis over Arizona, and Mizzou over Cincinnati in the West. Followed by Richmond over Vandy andFlorida State over Texas A&M in the Southwest. Finally in the Southeast, it's going to be the upset bracket with Utah State over Kansas State, Belmont over Wisconsin, Gonzaga over St. John's, and Michigan state over UCLA. The East I do not see having any upsets whatsoever, but expect to see at least one.
Please look toward Friday then for my third round picks, which will probably be wrong, but it's all in fun anyway.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
NL Central Preview/Prediction
The National League Central is incredibly top-heavy. Now, what I mean by that is that the bottom two teams, the Pirates and Astros have zero realistic shot of winning the division, or having a winning record for that matter. Whereas the top four teams in the division, the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all have a realistic chance of winning the division and possibly the World Series. It's just a matter of which team plays the best and doesn't have many injuries to go along with that. But, as mentioned in the NL East blog, I will go from last to first as far as predictions go. Then, each time I will have their biggest addition, biggest loss, and a little preview about each team.
Houston Astros
Biggest addition: Bill Hall, the journeyman utility player signed a one year deal with the Astros to be their regular starting second baseman. Hall pretty much will provide adequate defense and give you about 20-25 homers with a .275-.300 average throughout the season.
Biggest loss: Geoff Blum. Blum was the Astros starting third baseman on opening day last season. Hall will provide what Blum did, only Hall will provide it at second base. So, overall they aren't losing too much.
Houston is beginning a rebuilding process, which will take them a few years to get back into the playoff picture. Houston has very few recognizable pieces, now that they started full fledged rebuilding mode last season when they traded away their two most recognizable faces in Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. Now, the Astros have two or three recognizable names in Carlos Lee, which they will be thankful when his contract expires. Brett Myers, who had a surprising first year in Houston, putting up very respectable numbers last year, going 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA. Finally J.A. Happ, which the Astros got from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt trade. Happ is a good young lefty, who has the promise to be a good number two starter in a rotation someday. Happ will get that chance in Houston to prove himself. give the Astros about two or three years for them to be close to contention for a playoff berth again.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Biggest addition: Lyle Overbay. Overbay will hopefully be trade bait for another team, as the Pirates hope that some team needs a first baseman around the time of the trade deadline. Pittsburgh will use Overbay for as long as they can, and Overbay will provide adequate offense, providing about 35 doubles and 20 homers for an entire season. Anything else is gravy for the Bucs.
Biggest loss: Zach Duke. Duke isn't much of a loss, but for what it's worth, Duke was the Pirates opening day starter last season. Duke was not very good at all last season, and he was subsequently traded to Arizona during the offseason.
Sorry whatever Pirates fans are left, but you will again face another losing season, continuing your streak of futility, and this will be the 19th consecutive season that the city of Pittsburgh will not have a winning baseball team. But, there is reason for hope. The offense is filled with young players who are actually good. The face of the franchise is Andrew McCutchen, the star center fielder who is a speedster, and can show flashes of power from time to time. Then, at third base there is Pedro Alvarez, who is capable of being a 30 homer, 100 RBI guy for years to come. So, there is some hope in the offense. Just do not have any hope in the pitching staff whatsoever, as that will take several years to groom and for any good pitchers to come out of the farm system.
Chicago Cubs
Biggest addition: Matt Garza. Garza was surprisingly traded to the Cubs from the Rays in the offseason, as most though Garza would stay in Tampa. Garza is a capable number two pitcher in the Cubs rotation behind the always volatile Carlos Zambrano. Garza should fit well within the Cubs system, as he is primarily a ground ball pitcher, and that will serve him well in the ffriendly confines of Wrigley Field.
Biggest loss: Derrek Lee. Although Lee was technically gone in August of last season, he is still a big loss, as Lee provided gold glove caliber defense at first base over the past few seasons. Carlos Pena will hopefully provide the type of defense that Lee provided and the Cubs hope that Pena will bat above the Mendoza line of .200 this season while still getting around 25 homers in probably Pena's only season in Chicago.
The Cubs have the talent to compete for the division title. Just can they bring back the magic they had from 2007-08 to win it again this season? The Cubs main problems are that they are very aging in the outfield, averaging about 34 years old in each of their starting spots, and that their starting pitching is rather thin outside of Zambrano and Garza. Granted, they have a consistent third starter in Ryan Dempster, who will provide 200 innings and double digit victories year after year, but is there really anyone who is good after that? They have some good young players at short with Starlin Castro, at second with Blake DeWitt, Geovanny Soto behind the plate, and consistency at third with Aramis Ramirez.
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest addition: Lance Berkman. Berkman will be the Cardinals starting right fielder. This is a very questionable signing by the Cardinals, as Berkman hasn't played regularly in the outfield since 2004. Berkman is now 35, and his offensive production has been slipping for the past few seasons. St. Louis hopes that he can rebound for at least one season and provide capable numbers.
Biggest loss: While this is not a offseason loss, it is an injury loss which is huge for the Cardinals, and this man will be lost for the entire season. The man I'm referring to is Adam Wainwright, who finished second in the National League Cy Young chase behind unanimous winner Roy Halladay.
Wainwright is by far the biggest loss for the Cardinals, as he had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Wainwright is going to be gone this entire season, and possibly part of next year. St. Louis has two things in its favor though. An amazing manager in Tony LaRussa, who has only three losing seasons in his 15 seasons as St. Louis manager. Then, there is the best player in the game, Albert Pujols who will put up his .300 average, 30 plus homers, and 100 plus RBI every year. Those two factors make St. Louis never truly out of the race for the division crown.
Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Addition: Again, this truly isn't an offseason addition, but this man is the front runner for Rookie of the Year in the National League. That man is Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. While Chapman was amazing in his first month in the big leagues, he's going to have to bump it all up over a full season. Chapman will probably be the Reds set-up man in the bullpen and he should be able to accumulate plenty of holds in preparation for 40 save man Francisco Cordero.
Biggest loss: Orlando Cabrera, the Reds starting shortstop for most of last season. Cabrera provided solid defense and adequate offense for the second position in the batting order.
While the Reds went to the playoffs for the first time since 1995 last season, they then got swept by the Phillies in the division series. Cincinatti has plenty of depth all around, but especially in pitching. The Reds have depth in both the bullpen and the starting rotation. The rotation has six capable starters, and as mentioned above, they have Chapman and Cordero in the pen. Cincy has the National League MVP in Joey Votto, who will continue to mature and grow into one of the premier first basemen in all of the majors. Cincy also has some really good players at second with Brandon Phillips who is a fine leadoff hitter and can provide great defense. Scott Rolen has turned into a pleasant surprise at third base, as he provided his usual great defense and had a sort of renaissance in Cincy, batting .285 with 20 homers and 85 RBI last season. Finally, the outfield has some good players in Laynce Nix and Jay Bruce, who are some good offensive outfielders. But, the Reds just will fall short of winning its second straight division title to believe it or not, the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest addition: Zack Greinke. Greinke, along with Shaun Marcum, are providing the Brewers with a very capable one-two punch as powerful as any in the National League. Greinke, the 2008 American League Cy Young award winner was traded to Milwaukee for some top prospects, including the Brewers starting shortstop last season, Alcides Escobar. Greinke should also provide the Brewers with only their second 15 game winner since 1994.
Biggest loss: The aforementioned Escobar, who took over for a prior all-star in J.J. Hardy. Escobar has an incredibly gifted glove, but is very light hitting. Yuniesky Bentancourt, who along with Greinke is coming over from Kansas City should be an offensive improvement over Escobar.
The Brewers have come into this season basically in a one year gamble for the World Series, as they have a big expiring contract in Prince Fielder, their star first baseman, who is capable of hitting 50 homers in a season. Milwaukee also has other key free agents coming up with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. Milwaukee also has some other question marks. Those being at catcher, as they don't really have a clue of who their starting catcher is. Another at the fifth starter, which they have no clue who will be there, and finally, will John Axford continue to be effective in his second season as the closer? Milwaukee will become the third team in three years to become the NL Central champion.
Please read my NCAA tournament preview blog, coming up in a few hours. I will tell you my final four picks, and what is new about the tournament this season. Then, next week i'll give you my NL West preview blog as well.
Houston Astros
Biggest addition: Bill Hall, the journeyman utility player signed a one year deal with the Astros to be their regular starting second baseman. Hall pretty much will provide adequate defense and give you about 20-25 homers with a .275-.300 average throughout the season.
Biggest loss: Geoff Blum. Blum was the Astros starting third baseman on opening day last season. Hall will provide what Blum did, only Hall will provide it at second base. So, overall they aren't losing too much.
Houston is beginning a rebuilding process, which will take them a few years to get back into the playoff picture. Houston has very few recognizable pieces, now that they started full fledged rebuilding mode last season when they traded away their two most recognizable faces in Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. Now, the Astros have two or three recognizable names in Carlos Lee, which they will be thankful when his contract expires. Brett Myers, who had a surprising first year in Houston, putting up very respectable numbers last year, going 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA. Finally J.A. Happ, which the Astros got from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt trade. Happ is a good young lefty, who has the promise to be a good number two starter in a rotation someday. Happ will get that chance in Houston to prove himself. give the Astros about two or three years for them to be close to contention for a playoff berth again.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Biggest addition: Lyle Overbay. Overbay will hopefully be trade bait for another team, as the Pirates hope that some team needs a first baseman around the time of the trade deadline. Pittsburgh will use Overbay for as long as they can, and Overbay will provide adequate offense, providing about 35 doubles and 20 homers for an entire season. Anything else is gravy for the Bucs.
Biggest loss: Zach Duke. Duke isn't much of a loss, but for what it's worth, Duke was the Pirates opening day starter last season. Duke was not very good at all last season, and he was subsequently traded to Arizona during the offseason.
Sorry whatever Pirates fans are left, but you will again face another losing season, continuing your streak of futility, and this will be the 19th consecutive season that the city of Pittsburgh will not have a winning baseball team. But, there is reason for hope. The offense is filled with young players who are actually good. The face of the franchise is Andrew McCutchen, the star center fielder who is a speedster, and can show flashes of power from time to time. Then, at third base there is Pedro Alvarez, who is capable of being a 30 homer, 100 RBI guy for years to come. So, there is some hope in the offense. Just do not have any hope in the pitching staff whatsoever, as that will take several years to groom and for any good pitchers to come out of the farm system.
Chicago Cubs
Biggest addition: Matt Garza. Garza was surprisingly traded to the Cubs from the Rays in the offseason, as most though Garza would stay in Tampa. Garza is a capable number two pitcher in the Cubs rotation behind the always volatile Carlos Zambrano. Garza should fit well within the Cubs system, as he is primarily a ground ball pitcher, and that will serve him well in the ffriendly confines of Wrigley Field.
Biggest loss: Derrek Lee. Although Lee was technically gone in August of last season, he is still a big loss, as Lee provided gold glove caliber defense at first base over the past few seasons. Carlos Pena will hopefully provide the type of defense that Lee provided and the Cubs hope that Pena will bat above the Mendoza line of .200 this season while still getting around 25 homers in probably Pena's only season in Chicago.
The Cubs have the talent to compete for the division title. Just can they bring back the magic they had from 2007-08 to win it again this season? The Cubs main problems are that they are very aging in the outfield, averaging about 34 years old in each of their starting spots, and that their starting pitching is rather thin outside of Zambrano and Garza. Granted, they have a consistent third starter in Ryan Dempster, who will provide 200 innings and double digit victories year after year, but is there really anyone who is good after that? They have some good young players at short with Starlin Castro, at second with Blake DeWitt, Geovanny Soto behind the plate, and consistency at third with Aramis Ramirez.
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest addition: Lance Berkman. Berkman will be the Cardinals starting right fielder. This is a very questionable signing by the Cardinals, as Berkman hasn't played regularly in the outfield since 2004. Berkman is now 35, and his offensive production has been slipping for the past few seasons. St. Louis hopes that he can rebound for at least one season and provide capable numbers.
Biggest loss: While this is not a offseason loss, it is an injury loss which is huge for the Cardinals, and this man will be lost for the entire season. The man I'm referring to is Adam Wainwright, who finished second in the National League Cy Young chase behind unanimous winner Roy Halladay.
Wainwright is by far the biggest loss for the Cardinals, as he had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Wainwright is going to be gone this entire season, and possibly part of next year. St. Louis has two things in its favor though. An amazing manager in Tony LaRussa, who has only three losing seasons in his 15 seasons as St. Louis manager. Then, there is the best player in the game, Albert Pujols who will put up his .300 average, 30 plus homers, and 100 plus RBI every year. Those two factors make St. Louis never truly out of the race for the division crown.
Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Addition: Again, this truly isn't an offseason addition, but this man is the front runner for Rookie of the Year in the National League. That man is Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. While Chapman was amazing in his first month in the big leagues, he's going to have to bump it all up over a full season. Chapman will probably be the Reds set-up man in the bullpen and he should be able to accumulate plenty of holds in preparation for 40 save man Francisco Cordero.
Biggest loss: Orlando Cabrera, the Reds starting shortstop for most of last season. Cabrera provided solid defense and adequate offense for the second position in the batting order.
While the Reds went to the playoffs for the first time since 1995 last season, they then got swept by the Phillies in the division series. Cincinatti has plenty of depth all around, but especially in pitching. The Reds have depth in both the bullpen and the starting rotation. The rotation has six capable starters, and as mentioned above, they have Chapman and Cordero in the pen. Cincy has the National League MVP in Joey Votto, who will continue to mature and grow into one of the premier first basemen in all of the majors. Cincy also has some really good players at second with Brandon Phillips who is a fine leadoff hitter and can provide great defense. Scott Rolen has turned into a pleasant surprise at third base, as he provided his usual great defense and had a sort of renaissance in Cincy, batting .285 with 20 homers and 85 RBI last season. Finally, the outfield has some good players in Laynce Nix and Jay Bruce, who are some good offensive outfielders. But, the Reds just will fall short of winning its second straight division title to believe it or not, the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest addition: Zack Greinke. Greinke, along with Shaun Marcum, are providing the Brewers with a very capable one-two punch as powerful as any in the National League. Greinke, the 2008 American League Cy Young award winner was traded to Milwaukee for some top prospects, including the Brewers starting shortstop last season, Alcides Escobar. Greinke should also provide the Brewers with only their second 15 game winner since 1994.
Biggest loss: The aforementioned Escobar, who took over for a prior all-star in J.J. Hardy. Escobar has an incredibly gifted glove, but is very light hitting. Yuniesky Bentancourt, who along with Greinke is coming over from Kansas City should be an offensive improvement over Escobar.
The Brewers have come into this season basically in a one year gamble for the World Series, as they have a big expiring contract in Prince Fielder, their star first baseman, who is capable of hitting 50 homers in a season. Milwaukee also has other key free agents coming up with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. Milwaukee also has some other question marks. Those being at catcher, as they don't really have a clue of who their starting catcher is. Another at the fifth starter, which they have no clue who will be there, and finally, will John Axford continue to be effective in his second season as the closer? Milwaukee will become the third team in three years to become the NL Central champion.
Please read my NCAA tournament preview blog, coming up in a few hours. I will tell you my final four picks, and what is new about the tournament this season. Then, next week i'll give you my NL West preview blog as well.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
NL East Preview/Prediction
Ahh...winter is letting go of its grip on southeastern Pennsylvania, it's starting to get warmer, and daylight savings time starts again on Sunday morning at 2 a.m. This can only mean one thing, baseball is getting closer. Only 22 days until March 31 and the official start of baseball season, cannot wait for it. I will be posting new preview blogs for the National League and then the American League about two a week until opening day. I will begin in the National League East, where most folks heart lies as far as their favorite team around here. These blogs will follow essentially a basic format of this: the team's biggest acquisition, team's biggest loss, and a preview for the team. Plus, I will be going in reverse order of finish, last to first as far as my predictions go. Now, on to the preview, starting with the Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Biggest addition: Jayson Werth, the biggest overspend in the history of free agency in most folks minds. He signed a seven-year, $126 million dollar deal. Werth will be 39 by the time the deal is done, and he did it for the money, no matter what anyone else says.
Biggest departure: Adam Dunn, their starting first baseman bolted for the White Sox after putting up his seventh consecutive year of 35 or more home runs. Dunn signed a four-year $56 million dollar contract with the Sox to be their designated hitter/part time first baseman.
The Nationals are building towards the future. They will try to bring in some free agents to complement parts and bring in veteran leadership. Case in point is Werth, as they do not really have a suitable option in the minors yet, so they brought in Werth. Washington also has some good young players with Nyjer Morgan in center, Wilson Ramos, who they got from Minnesota in exchange for Matt Capps is going to be their catcher of the future, Ian Desmond will be a fine shortstop, and the face of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman at third. So, they got good players at those positions who play fine defense and put up solid offensive statistics every year. The problem with the Nationals is that they do not have any pitching. Their pitching rotation is horriffic, with John Lannan and Livan Hernandez as your ace and second pitcher is not going to cut it. One Stephen Strasburg comes back next year, they should be getting better, but this year is another last place finish.
New York Mets
Biggest addition: manager Terry Collins. The Mets roster itself did not have much turnover as far as the starting lineup or starting pitching or closer is concerned, so this has to be their biggest addition. Collins takes over for the fired Jerry Manuel, who only lasted two and a half seasons before he was fired. Collins has not been a manager in the majors for over a decade, so it's an interesting hire to say the least.
Biggest subtraction: Rod Barajas, not that big of a loss, but he was the Mets opening day starter last season, so it is definitely worth noting.
The Mets are in financial shambles thanks to Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme, as the Mets have had to get multi-million dollar loans just to run the team. New York is also plagued by injuries a lot, so if your a Mets fan and Memorial Day rolls around and the Mets are in first place, it's a passing thing most likely. If the Mets could stay healthy for any length of time, they would be a force to contend with in the division, as it is, they will probably be looking to dump payroll by the time the trade deadline approaches.
Florida Marlins
Biggest addition: Javier Vasquez, while Vasquez was sub par with the Yankees, he should perform a lot better in a place where not a whole lot of fans care about the baseball team. Plus, if you go back two years ago, when Vasquez was with the Braves, he had a 15-10 record, and had a 2.87 ERA for the season. If the Marlins can get that type of production out of their fourth starter, they should be ok with Vasquez for a one-year deal.
Biggest subtraction: Dan Uggla, who they traded away to the rival Braves. Uggla was not about to get as big as an extension as he would have liked from the Marlins, so they traded him to the Braves, where he got a five year extension. Uggla is a big loss for Florida, as he was a big bopper in the middle of the lineup, and could hit a lot of homers in Sun Life Stadium, normally a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Florida has a dynamite young team, as five of the eight starting positions are being filled by players with less than two years experience. The Marlins have a really good young lineup, and they are very solid up the middle, where you want to be. Another big free agent they brought in was John Buck, an all-star with the Blue Jays last year who will be their starting catcher, then a very good starting staff, led by workhorse Josh Johnson, who went head-to-head with Roy Halladay last year, and nearly beat Halladay during his perfect game. Then at shortstop, you have arguably the best one in the game, with Hanley Ramirez who will put up a guaranteed .300 average, and has the capability to hit 35 homers. At second, they have a solid one with Omar Infante, one of the guys they got back from Atlanta for Uggla. Finally, in center, they have 2009 Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan. Finally, the Marlins have a good bullpen, with closer Leo Nunez. If the Marlins can get it all together, they have a very good shot to win the wild card, maybe even the division. As it is though, I'll say wait until next year, when they are in their new ballpark.
Atlanta Braves
Biggest addition: Uggla, who replaces the fine Martin Prado as the everyday second baseman, while Prado moves to the outfield. Uggla will bring some much needed power to the lineup and provide protection for Brian McCann, the only true power in the lineup.
Biggest subtraction: it is hard to place this on anyone but Bobby Cox, the Braves manager for the past 20 seasons. Every single person in the clubhouse loved playing for Bobby, and he brought a sense of calness and regularity to a clubhouse, which doesn't normally experience it.
While Cox may be gone as manager, the Braves were quick to jump on Fredi Gonzalez, the Braves former third base coach, and the Marlins former manager to come in and take over. Gonzalez has tried to keep Cox as close to the club as possible during spring training, and has tried to keep everything the same as it ever has been. Atlanta is very solid all around, with very few question marks surrounding the team. The three biggest question marks are the following: closer, outfield, and the corner infield positions. First, to start with the closer, and the favorite seems to be power pitcher Craig Kimbrel, who was great last season setting up for the now retired Billy Wagner. Kimbrel had a 0 ERA post all-star break last season, and should be suited to settle into the closer role. Second question is the outfield. Prado is moving to a position he never played before in left, Nate McLouth had a horrible season last year and was even demoted to AAA Gwinnett, and will jason Heyward have a sophomore slump? Heyward was the NL ROY runner-up last season to Buster Posey, so he should be fine. McLouth looks to rebound and even had a ok August and September last season, when he was called back up. Then Prado, who is coming off a hip pointer injury and adjusting to the outfield from the infield. He has handled everything well enough coming into the season, now can it crossover into the regular season. Finally, the corner infield spots. Freddie Freeman will be the starting first baseman, and there is always a question of whether or not the rookies can cut the mustard so to speak in the majors. Then, at third, Chipper Jones, the face of the franchise for the past 15 seasons, is coming off a torn ACL, and can he come back and be a good third baseman so quickly in this, his probable last season?
Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest addition: Cliff Lee. Everyone in and around the city of brotherly love was saying Merry Cliffmas when he arrived just before Christmas in Philadelphia. Lee, who was inexplicably traded before the 2009 season to make room for Roy Halladay, really enjoyed his brief tenure with the Phillies in 2009, leading them to the 2009 World Series that he wanted to come back and hopefully lead this team to its second World Series title in four years.
Biggest subtraction: Werth, who was the right-handed power in the lineup that was filled with left handed bombers in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. Plus, now there is a huge void in right field, which will be filled by the still largely unproven Ben Francisco.
Philadelphia fans and "experts" alike, including me are praising the four "ace" pitchers the Phillies have, along with a not so bad fifth in Joe Blanton. This starting staff is probably the best in baseball, although arguments can be made for the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, and Boston Red Sox. While this rotation on paper looks amazing, allow us all to remember that they can't pitch perfect games every single time out. This lineup is aging, and no starting pitcher or fielder is younger than 28 to begin the season. There are many questions, including whether or not Chase Utley's knee is going to bother him for most of the season. While there are many questions, it is safe to say that the Phillies are still the class of the NL East, no matter what.
Check back on Saturday night/Sunday morning for my NL Central preview. Will the Reds repeat? How will the top four teams sort out between the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, and Cubs? Finally, check out my ESPN tournament challenge bracket challenge in time for the tournament, which begins on Tuesday. I'll also have a preview/prediction of my final four come Sunday when the brackets are revealed.
Washington Nationals
Biggest addition: Jayson Werth, the biggest overspend in the history of free agency in most folks minds. He signed a seven-year, $126 million dollar deal. Werth will be 39 by the time the deal is done, and he did it for the money, no matter what anyone else says.
Biggest departure: Adam Dunn, their starting first baseman bolted for the White Sox after putting up his seventh consecutive year of 35 or more home runs. Dunn signed a four-year $56 million dollar contract with the Sox to be their designated hitter/part time first baseman.
The Nationals are building towards the future. They will try to bring in some free agents to complement parts and bring in veteran leadership. Case in point is Werth, as they do not really have a suitable option in the minors yet, so they brought in Werth. Washington also has some good young players with Nyjer Morgan in center, Wilson Ramos, who they got from Minnesota in exchange for Matt Capps is going to be their catcher of the future, Ian Desmond will be a fine shortstop, and the face of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman at third. So, they got good players at those positions who play fine defense and put up solid offensive statistics every year. The problem with the Nationals is that they do not have any pitching. Their pitching rotation is horriffic, with John Lannan and Livan Hernandez as your ace and second pitcher is not going to cut it. One Stephen Strasburg comes back next year, they should be getting better, but this year is another last place finish.
New York Mets
Biggest addition: manager Terry Collins. The Mets roster itself did not have much turnover as far as the starting lineup or starting pitching or closer is concerned, so this has to be their biggest addition. Collins takes over for the fired Jerry Manuel, who only lasted two and a half seasons before he was fired. Collins has not been a manager in the majors for over a decade, so it's an interesting hire to say the least.
Biggest subtraction: Rod Barajas, not that big of a loss, but he was the Mets opening day starter last season, so it is definitely worth noting.
The Mets are in financial shambles thanks to Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme, as the Mets have had to get multi-million dollar loans just to run the team. New York is also plagued by injuries a lot, so if your a Mets fan and Memorial Day rolls around and the Mets are in first place, it's a passing thing most likely. If the Mets could stay healthy for any length of time, they would be a force to contend with in the division, as it is, they will probably be looking to dump payroll by the time the trade deadline approaches.
Florida Marlins
Biggest addition: Javier Vasquez, while Vasquez was sub par with the Yankees, he should perform a lot better in a place where not a whole lot of fans care about the baseball team. Plus, if you go back two years ago, when Vasquez was with the Braves, he had a 15-10 record, and had a 2.87 ERA for the season. If the Marlins can get that type of production out of their fourth starter, they should be ok with Vasquez for a one-year deal.
Biggest subtraction: Dan Uggla, who they traded away to the rival Braves. Uggla was not about to get as big as an extension as he would have liked from the Marlins, so they traded him to the Braves, where he got a five year extension. Uggla is a big loss for Florida, as he was a big bopper in the middle of the lineup, and could hit a lot of homers in Sun Life Stadium, normally a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Florida has a dynamite young team, as five of the eight starting positions are being filled by players with less than two years experience. The Marlins have a really good young lineup, and they are very solid up the middle, where you want to be. Another big free agent they brought in was John Buck, an all-star with the Blue Jays last year who will be their starting catcher, then a very good starting staff, led by workhorse Josh Johnson, who went head-to-head with Roy Halladay last year, and nearly beat Halladay during his perfect game. Then at shortstop, you have arguably the best one in the game, with Hanley Ramirez who will put up a guaranteed .300 average, and has the capability to hit 35 homers. At second, they have a solid one with Omar Infante, one of the guys they got back from Atlanta for Uggla. Finally, in center, they have 2009 Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan. Finally, the Marlins have a good bullpen, with closer Leo Nunez. If the Marlins can get it all together, they have a very good shot to win the wild card, maybe even the division. As it is though, I'll say wait until next year, when they are in their new ballpark.
Atlanta Braves
Biggest addition: Uggla, who replaces the fine Martin Prado as the everyday second baseman, while Prado moves to the outfield. Uggla will bring some much needed power to the lineup and provide protection for Brian McCann, the only true power in the lineup.
Biggest subtraction: it is hard to place this on anyone but Bobby Cox, the Braves manager for the past 20 seasons. Every single person in the clubhouse loved playing for Bobby, and he brought a sense of calness and regularity to a clubhouse, which doesn't normally experience it.
While Cox may be gone as manager, the Braves were quick to jump on Fredi Gonzalez, the Braves former third base coach, and the Marlins former manager to come in and take over. Gonzalez has tried to keep Cox as close to the club as possible during spring training, and has tried to keep everything the same as it ever has been. Atlanta is very solid all around, with very few question marks surrounding the team. The three biggest question marks are the following: closer, outfield, and the corner infield positions. First, to start with the closer, and the favorite seems to be power pitcher Craig Kimbrel, who was great last season setting up for the now retired Billy Wagner. Kimbrel had a 0 ERA post all-star break last season, and should be suited to settle into the closer role. Second question is the outfield. Prado is moving to a position he never played before in left, Nate McLouth had a horrible season last year and was even demoted to AAA Gwinnett, and will jason Heyward have a sophomore slump? Heyward was the NL ROY runner-up last season to Buster Posey, so he should be fine. McLouth looks to rebound and even had a ok August and September last season, when he was called back up. Then Prado, who is coming off a hip pointer injury and adjusting to the outfield from the infield. He has handled everything well enough coming into the season, now can it crossover into the regular season. Finally, the corner infield spots. Freddie Freeman will be the starting first baseman, and there is always a question of whether or not the rookies can cut the mustard so to speak in the majors. Then, at third, Chipper Jones, the face of the franchise for the past 15 seasons, is coming off a torn ACL, and can he come back and be a good third baseman so quickly in this, his probable last season?
Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest addition: Cliff Lee. Everyone in and around the city of brotherly love was saying Merry Cliffmas when he arrived just before Christmas in Philadelphia. Lee, who was inexplicably traded before the 2009 season to make room for Roy Halladay, really enjoyed his brief tenure with the Phillies in 2009, leading them to the 2009 World Series that he wanted to come back and hopefully lead this team to its second World Series title in four years.
Biggest subtraction: Werth, who was the right-handed power in the lineup that was filled with left handed bombers in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. Plus, now there is a huge void in right field, which will be filled by the still largely unproven Ben Francisco.
Philadelphia fans and "experts" alike, including me are praising the four "ace" pitchers the Phillies have, along with a not so bad fifth in Joe Blanton. This starting staff is probably the best in baseball, although arguments can be made for the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, and Boston Red Sox. While this rotation on paper looks amazing, allow us all to remember that they can't pitch perfect games every single time out. This lineup is aging, and no starting pitcher or fielder is younger than 28 to begin the season. There are many questions, including whether or not Chase Utley's knee is going to bother him for most of the season. While there are many questions, it is safe to say that the Phillies are still the class of the NL East, no matter what.
Check back on Saturday night/Sunday morning for my NL Central preview. Will the Reds repeat? How will the top four teams sort out between the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, and Cubs? Finally, check out my ESPN tournament challenge bracket challenge in time for the tournament, which begins on Tuesday. I'll also have a preview/prediction of my final four come Sunday when the brackets are revealed.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
January/February Game of The Month
January and February are being combined into this one post. I became complacent over the past month and did not blog at all. Those actively checking back to see if I had posted a new post, I thank you. This month of March will be filled with over ten posts. The two main topics of this month will be Major League Baseball team and division previews along with covering the madness of March and the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
January
January's game of the month is fairly easy in my estimation. The game has to be the Seattle Seahawks-New Orleans Saints Wild Card playoff game. The reason why it is the G.O.M. is because nobody expected the Seahawks to do absolutely jack squat in the game. However, New Orleans was also trying to break a streak of Super Bowl Champions to win a playoff games. New Orleans was trying to become the first team in five years to win a playoff game after winning the Super Bowl. Seattle came into the game having to win its last game to even get into the playoffs. Then, they came in with a losing record, 7-9 to be exact and won the pathetic NFC West with it. Everyone and their mother expected New Orleans to win, as they were the defending Super Bowl Champions, and with the amount of talent they had over Seattle. Two early Seahawks mistakes were turning the game into one that everyone expected and New Orleans came out to an early 10-0 lead. But, after the early 10-0 lead, Seattle quickly came back into the game with a touchdown to cut the lead down to three. After that, the teams went back and forth until the half with the score Seattle 24-20. Seattle then quickly went and scored 10 unanswered points in the second half. New Orleans managed to come back and come close at 34-30 in the fourth quarter. Finally, the indelible play in the game occurs, with Marshawn Lynch barreling over seemingly ever Saints defender on his way to put the game away and give Seattle the lead of 41-30 with less than four minutes to go.
There were other candidates for the January game of the month including the following NFL playoff games: New York Jets-Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay-Philadelphia, New York Jets-New England, Pittsburgh-Baltimore, New York Jets-Pittsburgh. Then, there were also several bowl games to choose from, including: Wisconsin-TCU, Ohio State-Arkansas, and the BCS National Title game, Oregon-Auburn. If you disagree, please let me know on here in the comments or via facebook.
February
Arizona-Cal in triple overtime. Normally I wouldn't care for a basketball game. I wouldn't even care for a regular season hockey game, but when a game goes into triple overtime, it begs for your attention. Cal is a very mediocre team in the Pac-10 conference. Arizona was on a tear coming into this game. But, when a team is ranked, you always want to beat that team, especially when it's on your own home floor. Cal definitely rose up to play this game, but ultimately lost in triple overtime, 107-105.
Another basketball related thing is happening here in this column. That would be the NBA Slam Dunk contest. Granted this is not a game, or a race, or what have you, but this dunk contest was very nice, as it featured the most exciting player in the NBA today, Blake Griffin. Plus, it featured some other good dunkers with Demar Derozan, Javale McGee, and Serge Ibaka.
Everyone pulled out a pretty nice dunk. Griffin won the contest by jumping over the hood of a car. That is very impressive, no matter how you slice it. Derozan did a dunk he called "East Bay Dunk Remix". Essentially, he had a teammate bounce the ball off the support of the backboard, then Derozan went underneath the backboard put the ball through his legs and then dunked it. McGee I thought had the most impressive dunk of the night by dunking two balls into two separate hoops. He did it by throwing a ball off the backboard and used his momentum to dunk the two balls. Finally, Ibaka brought a kid out and put a doll on a pole then grabbed the doll with his mouth while dunking the ball. Ibaka's dunk is kind of disgusting, yet also pretty cool when you think about the amount of height needed to grab the doll with his mouth.
However, my game of the month is actually a race, that would be the 53rd Daytona 500. The "Great American Race" was a historic race as it crowned the youngest champion in its history. Trevor Bayne won the race at the ripe old age of 20 years, one day old. Bayne not only beat the previous record, he shattered it, as he was more than five years younger than the previous record holder, Jeff Gordon. Bayne also won the biggest race in NASCAR in only his second ever Sprint Cup start, which is pretty remarkable, to control the nerves racing in that race. This running of the Daytona 500 was historic in a few other areas as well. The race had 74 lead changes among 22 drivers, and it had 16 cautions. This race was a lot more exciting than the 2010 version which was filled and marred with delays due to potholes. The 2011 version was also nice in the fact that the track received a repaving for the first time in a long time.
Again, if you disagree with my picks, please let me know via facebook or in the comments section. Or, if you'd like, you can lavish praise upon my picks. Either way, I would love to hear from you, the most important people of this column.
Stay tuned for more blogs coming up!
January
January's game of the month is fairly easy in my estimation. The game has to be the Seattle Seahawks-New Orleans Saints Wild Card playoff game. The reason why it is the G.O.M. is because nobody expected the Seahawks to do absolutely jack squat in the game. However, New Orleans was also trying to break a streak of Super Bowl Champions to win a playoff games. New Orleans was trying to become the first team in five years to win a playoff game after winning the Super Bowl. Seattle came into the game having to win its last game to even get into the playoffs. Then, they came in with a losing record, 7-9 to be exact and won the pathetic NFC West with it. Everyone and their mother expected New Orleans to win, as they were the defending Super Bowl Champions, and with the amount of talent they had over Seattle. Two early Seahawks mistakes were turning the game into one that everyone expected and New Orleans came out to an early 10-0 lead. But, after the early 10-0 lead, Seattle quickly came back into the game with a touchdown to cut the lead down to three. After that, the teams went back and forth until the half with the score Seattle 24-20. Seattle then quickly went and scored 10 unanswered points in the second half. New Orleans managed to come back and come close at 34-30 in the fourth quarter. Finally, the indelible play in the game occurs, with Marshawn Lynch barreling over seemingly ever Saints defender on his way to put the game away and give Seattle the lead of 41-30 with less than four minutes to go.
There were other candidates for the January game of the month including the following NFL playoff games: New York Jets-Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay-Philadelphia, New York Jets-New England, Pittsburgh-Baltimore, New York Jets-Pittsburgh. Then, there were also several bowl games to choose from, including: Wisconsin-TCU, Ohio State-Arkansas, and the BCS National Title game, Oregon-Auburn. If you disagree, please let me know on here in the comments or via facebook.
February
Arizona-Cal in triple overtime. Normally I wouldn't care for a basketball game. I wouldn't even care for a regular season hockey game, but when a game goes into triple overtime, it begs for your attention. Cal is a very mediocre team in the Pac-10 conference. Arizona was on a tear coming into this game. But, when a team is ranked, you always want to beat that team, especially when it's on your own home floor. Cal definitely rose up to play this game, but ultimately lost in triple overtime, 107-105.
Another basketball related thing is happening here in this column. That would be the NBA Slam Dunk contest. Granted this is not a game, or a race, or what have you, but this dunk contest was very nice, as it featured the most exciting player in the NBA today, Blake Griffin. Plus, it featured some other good dunkers with Demar Derozan, Javale McGee, and Serge Ibaka.
Everyone pulled out a pretty nice dunk. Griffin won the contest by jumping over the hood of a car. That is very impressive, no matter how you slice it. Derozan did a dunk he called "East Bay Dunk Remix". Essentially, he had a teammate bounce the ball off the support of the backboard, then Derozan went underneath the backboard put the ball through his legs and then dunked it. McGee I thought had the most impressive dunk of the night by dunking two balls into two separate hoops. He did it by throwing a ball off the backboard and used his momentum to dunk the two balls. Finally, Ibaka brought a kid out and put a doll on a pole then grabbed the doll with his mouth while dunking the ball. Ibaka's dunk is kind of disgusting, yet also pretty cool when you think about the amount of height needed to grab the doll with his mouth.
However, my game of the month is actually a race, that would be the 53rd Daytona 500. The "Great American Race" was a historic race as it crowned the youngest champion in its history. Trevor Bayne won the race at the ripe old age of 20 years, one day old. Bayne not only beat the previous record, he shattered it, as he was more than five years younger than the previous record holder, Jeff Gordon. Bayne also won the biggest race in NASCAR in only his second ever Sprint Cup start, which is pretty remarkable, to control the nerves racing in that race. This running of the Daytona 500 was historic in a few other areas as well. The race had 74 lead changes among 22 drivers, and it had 16 cautions. This race was a lot more exciting than the 2010 version which was filled and marred with delays due to potholes. The 2011 version was also nice in the fact that the track received a repaving for the first time in a long time.
Again, if you disagree with my picks, please let me know via facebook or in the comments section. Or, if you'd like, you can lavish praise upon my picks. Either way, I would love to hear from you, the most important people of this column.
Stay tuned for more blogs coming up!
Monday, January 31, 2011
Super Bowl XLV Preview!
Ahh...yes, we have come to the final game of the NFL season, the ultimate game, watched by so many just for the commercials and the halftime show, but for the purist, still the NFL championship will be decided with this very game. Plus, it features two historical teams, one many consider the team of the '60s with the Green Bay Packers, and the other many consider the team of the '70s, and possibly even the 2000s thus far, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The names have such cache, it's hard not to foresee this game surpassing even last year's mark of 106 million viewers for the most watched television program of all time. Finally, these two teams many considered favorites in their respective conferences to make the Super Bowl, including this blogger who predicted both would make the playoffs. Before getting into dissecting each team, and giving an edge to each team in the following positions: offensive line, quarterback, running back, wide receivers/tight ends, kicker, punter, defensive line, linebacker, and secondary. Allow me to look at how each team got to the Super Bowl in Dallas.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Came through the first four games of the regular season without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger relatively unscathed, going 3-1, with their only loss to division rival Baltimore. Pittsburgh then went 9-3 after those first four games to finish 12-4 and win the divisional tiebreaker over Baltimore for the coveted number two seed in the AFC, where they had a first round bye and were fortunate enough to have the New York Jets beat New England so the AFC Championship game would be at home. Before that AFC title game, Pittsburgh had to face divisional rival Baltimore for the third time in a hard hitting, brutal game which changed momentum after Ray Rice's key fumble in the third quarter. That allowed the Steelers to seize momentum and eventually won that game 31-24.
Then came the AFC championship game, where the Steelers steamrolled the Jets in the first half to make it a seemingly insurmountable 24-0 lead at the break. New York valiantly tried to make a comeback, but Pittsburgh sealed it on a crucial third down conversion from Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown to seal the game and run out the clock from there.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has had to overcome three big injuries to get to the playoffs, one to starting tight end Jermichael Finley who was supposed to have a breakout year, and another to starting linebacker Nick Barnett, who was a leader on the defensive side of the ball. Then, there was starting running back Ryan Grant, who was supposed to carry the load running the ball and take some pressure off of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Plus, Green Bay had two must win games at the end of the season to even make the playoffs, and they won both to get in. Really, the Packers have been on a roll since Rodgers came back from his second concussion of the season to defeat both the Giants and Bears to get into the playoffs.
In the playoffs, the Packers have had to play all three of their games on the road thus far, playing in Philadelphia where Green Bay pulled a running game out of its hat to rush for over 100 yards against a fairly porous Eagles run defense, and Green Bay escaped Philly with a 21-16 victory. The divisional round they had to go to a place where only one team one all season, to the Georgia Dome to face the Atlanta Falcons. Only New Orleans beat Atlanta in Atlanta this season, and the Packers met that challenge easily, defeating the number one seed 48-21. Finally, they had to face another divisional foe like the Steelers did when they faced their rivals, the Chicago Bears in the NFC championship game. The Packers caught somewhat of a break in that Jay Cutler was out for half the game and they relied on their defense to get them to the Super Bowl, clinching the victory with a B.J. Raji interception return for touchdown.
Now that you know how the teams got here, it is now time to break it down.
Offensive Line
Both teams have fairly mobile quarterbacks, with Rodgers and Roethlisberger able to move out of the pocket and keep plays alive, so offensive line play isn't as key as one would think in this game. The edge goes to the Packers though, for the simple reason that Maurkice Pouncey, the all-pro rookie center of the Steelers is most likely out of the Super Bowl with a high ankle sprain, which is highly difficult to come back from.
Edge: Packers
Quarterback
Both teams have excellent quarterbacks who have very different strengths. Rodgers can put a team on his back and carry it, much like he did for the past five games, throwing the ball effectively down the field and accurately. Rodgers can also run the ball pretty well for a quarterback, as he is willing to tuck the ball and run with it if need be. Roethlisberger is a leader, who can manage the game very well, throwing when he needs to, but can also be like Rodgers and throw the ball 40 times if need be with accuracy. That, and the fact the he's been to the Super Bowl twice before, gives him the slight edge over Rodgers right now.
Edge: Steelers
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Green Bay has a plethora of targets to throw to who can be Pro Bowl caliber: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson. These are all names which are recognizable, and all four had over 550 yards receiving on the year. Pittsburgh has Hines Ward as the main number one threat, but the rest of the guys are very unknown who are first year starters like Mike Wallace, who is their deep threat, and they normally throw to him once a game to try for a big play. The tight end position favors Pittsburgh because Heath Miller can block very well as well as catch the ball for a great possession guy. Green Bay lost Finley, and that hurt them here, as otherwise they would have a gigantic edge in this category. As it is, they still have a big one though.
Edge: Packers
Running Backs
Green Bay had virtually zero running game throughout the regular season since Ryan Grant went down with an injury, now they have found one in the postseason with sixth round choice James Starks out of Buffalo. Green Bay also has a solid backup with power back John Kuhn, who is the main guy for down inside the 10 yard line. The Steelers are notorious for running the ball htroughout their history and turning out great backs like Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis. They have another potentially great one with Rashard Mendenhall, who just comepleted his second consecutive 1,000 yard rushing season. Then, they also have a good backup with Mewelde Moore, who is more of a third down back than anything.
Edge: Steelers
Kicker
Pittsburgh released their original kicker, Jeff Reed in the middle of the season, as he was doing awful at Heinz Field, and signed Shaun Suisham who was sitting at home when the Steelers called. Green Bay on the other hand, has had former Pro Bowler Mason Crosby for three seasons, and is one of the best in football. Crosby also has a very strong leg, as evidenced in the first game of the season when he hit a 56-yard field goal.
Edge: Packers
Punter
Pittsburgh had an injury to their former Pro Bowl punter Daniel Speulveda late in the season, so by de facto, the edge goes to the Packers.
Edge: Packers
Defensive line
Both teams are very even in the front seven, as both employ 3-4 defenses, which means they have three down lineman, and four linebackers, instead of the usual 4-3, which is vice versa. Both have great nose tackles, Green Bay with B.J. Raji, Pittsburgh with Casey Hampton. Both have very good defensive ends, Green Bay with Cullen Jenkins and Johnny Jolly. Pittsburgh with Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith.
Edge: Slightly to the Packers, as they are younger.
Linebackers
I would take either team's set of linebackers over pretty much any other in the NFL. All eight are capable of being all-pro linebackers. Both teams can rush the passer like no other, both teams have linebackers who can drop back in coverage and cover tight ends with relative ease, so this one I'm afraid is a push.
Edge: Push
Secondary
While both teams have very good secondaries, Pittsburgh has all-pro Troy Polamalu and he can change a game by himself. Offensive coordinators and quarterbacks are always looking out for where he is on the field, as Polamalu can leap over both lines and make a sack, he can come in on run defense and stop a running back in his tracks, he can pick off a quarterback and return it for a touchdown. Just for Polamalu, the Steelers have the edge.
Edge: Steelers
Coaching
Mike Tomlin is the youngest coach ever to go to two Super Bowls. Mike McCarthy is also very good, but can sometimes have trouble with clock management. Pittsburgh also has a hall of fame assistant in Dick LeBeau, who will try and blitz Rodgers all day to try and make hi make mistakes. Green Bay also has some fine assistant coaches in Dom Capers who will try and do the exact same thing to Roethlisberger with his schemes. Overall, both coaching staffs are really good, but must give the edge to the Steelers based on experience.
Edge: Steelers
So, after the tally has been totaled, I give a slight edge overall to the Packers, 5-4, with a push thrown in for good measure. Does that mean I'm going to pick the Packers? Yes, as I think the Packers will be able to overcome their injuries and become the third team ever to play all of its games on the road and win their fourth Super Bowl.
Super Bowl XLV Prediction: Packers 26, Steelers 21
Pittsburgh Steelers
Came through the first four games of the regular season without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger relatively unscathed, going 3-1, with their only loss to division rival Baltimore. Pittsburgh then went 9-3 after those first four games to finish 12-4 and win the divisional tiebreaker over Baltimore for the coveted number two seed in the AFC, where they had a first round bye and were fortunate enough to have the New York Jets beat New England so the AFC Championship game would be at home. Before that AFC title game, Pittsburgh had to face divisional rival Baltimore for the third time in a hard hitting, brutal game which changed momentum after Ray Rice's key fumble in the third quarter. That allowed the Steelers to seize momentum and eventually won that game 31-24.
Then came the AFC championship game, where the Steelers steamrolled the Jets in the first half to make it a seemingly insurmountable 24-0 lead at the break. New York valiantly tried to make a comeback, but Pittsburgh sealed it on a crucial third down conversion from Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown to seal the game and run out the clock from there.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has had to overcome three big injuries to get to the playoffs, one to starting tight end Jermichael Finley who was supposed to have a breakout year, and another to starting linebacker Nick Barnett, who was a leader on the defensive side of the ball. Then, there was starting running back Ryan Grant, who was supposed to carry the load running the ball and take some pressure off of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Plus, Green Bay had two must win games at the end of the season to even make the playoffs, and they won both to get in. Really, the Packers have been on a roll since Rodgers came back from his second concussion of the season to defeat both the Giants and Bears to get into the playoffs.
In the playoffs, the Packers have had to play all three of their games on the road thus far, playing in Philadelphia where Green Bay pulled a running game out of its hat to rush for over 100 yards against a fairly porous Eagles run defense, and Green Bay escaped Philly with a 21-16 victory. The divisional round they had to go to a place where only one team one all season, to the Georgia Dome to face the Atlanta Falcons. Only New Orleans beat Atlanta in Atlanta this season, and the Packers met that challenge easily, defeating the number one seed 48-21. Finally, they had to face another divisional foe like the Steelers did when they faced their rivals, the Chicago Bears in the NFC championship game. The Packers caught somewhat of a break in that Jay Cutler was out for half the game and they relied on their defense to get them to the Super Bowl, clinching the victory with a B.J. Raji interception return for touchdown.
Now that you know how the teams got here, it is now time to break it down.
Offensive Line
Both teams have fairly mobile quarterbacks, with Rodgers and Roethlisberger able to move out of the pocket and keep plays alive, so offensive line play isn't as key as one would think in this game. The edge goes to the Packers though, for the simple reason that Maurkice Pouncey, the all-pro rookie center of the Steelers is most likely out of the Super Bowl with a high ankle sprain, which is highly difficult to come back from.
Edge: Packers
Quarterback
Both teams have excellent quarterbacks who have very different strengths. Rodgers can put a team on his back and carry it, much like he did for the past five games, throwing the ball effectively down the field and accurately. Rodgers can also run the ball pretty well for a quarterback, as he is willing to tuck the ball and run with it if need be. Roethlisberger is a leader, who can manage the game very well, throwing when he needs to, but can also be like Rodgers and throw the ball 40 times if need be with accuracy. That, and the fact the he's been to the Super Bowl twice before, gives him the slight edge over Rodgers right now.
Edge: Steelers
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Green Bay has a plethora of targets to throw to who can be Pro Bowl caliber: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson. These are all names which are recognizable, and all four had over 550 yards receiving on the year. Pittsburgh has Hines Ward as the main number one threat, but the rest of the guys are very unknown who are first year starters like Mike Wallace, who is their deep threat, and they normally throw to him once a game to try for a big play. The tight end position favors Pittsburgh because Heath Miller can block very well as well as catch the ball for a great possession guy. Green Bay lost Finley, and that hurt them here, as otherwise they would have a gigantic edge in this category. As it is, they still have a big one though.
Edge: Packers
Running Backs
Green Bay had virtually zero running game throughout the regular season since Ryan Grant went down with an injury, now they have found one in the postseason with sixth round choice James Starks out of Buffalo. Green Bay also has a solid backup with power back John Kuhn, who is the main guy for down inside the 10 yard line. The Steelers are notorious for running the ball htroughout their history and turning out great backs like Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis. They have another potentially great one with Rashard Mendenhall, who just comepleted his second consecutive 1,000 yard rushing season. Then, they also have a good backup with Mewelde Moore, who is more of a third down back than anything.
Edge: Steelers
Kicker
Pittsburgh released their original kicker, Jeff Reed in the middle of the season, as he was doing awful at Heinz Field, and signed Shaun Suisham who was sitting at home when the Steelers called. Green Bay on the other hand, has had former Pro Bowler Mason Crosby for three seasons, and is one of the best in football. Crosby also has a very strong leg, as evidenced in the first game of the season when he hit a 56-yard field goal.
Edge: Packers
Punter
Pittsburgh had an injury to their former Pro Bowl punter Daniel Speulveda late in the season, so by de facto, the edge goes to the Packers.
Edge: Packers
Defensive line
Both teams are very even in the front seven, as both employ 3-4 defenses, which means they have three down lineman, and four linebackers, instead of the usual 4-3, which is vice versa. Both have great nose tackles, Green Bay with B.J. Raji, Pittsburgh with Casey Hampton. Both have very good defensive ends, Green Bay with Cullen Jenkins and Johnny Jolly. Pittsburgh with Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith.
Edge: Slightly to the Packers, as they are younger.
Linebackers
I would take either team's set of linebackers over pretty much any other in the NFL. All eight are capable of being all-pro linebackers. Both teams can rush the passer like no other, both teams have linebackers who can drop back in coverage and cover tight ends with relative ease, so this one I'm afraid is a push.
Edge: Push
Secondary
While both teams have very good secondaries, Pittsburgh has all-pro Troy Polamalu and he can change a game by himself. Offensive coordinators and quarterbacks are always looking out for where he is on the field, as Polamalu can leap over both lines and make a sack, he can come in on run defense and stop a running back in his tracks, he can pick off a quarterback and return it for a touchdown. Just for Polamalu, the Steelers have the edge.
Edge: Steelers
Coaching
Mike Tomlin is the youngest coach ever to go to two Super Bowls. Mike McCarthy is also very good, but can sometimes have trouble with clock management. Pittsburgh also has a hall of fame assistant in Dick LeBeau, who will try and blitz Rodgers all day to try and make hi make mistakes. Green Bay also has some fine assistant coaches in Dom Capers who will try and do the exact same thing to Roethlisberger with his schemes. Overall, both coaching staffs are really good, but must give the edge to the Steelers based on experience.
Edge: Steelers
So, after the tally has been totaled, I give a slight edge overall to the Packers, 5-4, with a push thrown in for good measure. Does that mean I'm going to pick the Packers? Yes, as I think the Packers will be able to overcome their injuries and become the third team ever to play all of its games on the road and win their fourth Super Bowl.
Super Bowl XLV Prediction: Packers 26, Steelers 21
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Championship Sunday!
These playoffs are as exciting as ever, and the viewership reminds us of that fact. The conference championships will determine who will face one another in the Super Bowl. Both feature rematches from the regular season as well.
Green Bay at Chicago
This is an excellent game between divisional rivals, both possess a great defense, and both have one part of their offense which is suspect at times. The Bears greatest weakness is Jay Cutler, who hasn't been very Cutler-like the past few games, as he has a better than 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio in the games the Bears have won, which is very key if the Bears are to win this game. The key for the Packers is to get a running game going well with James Starks, and allow him to chew up clock time. Another key for the Packers is to kick it away from Devin Hester, the best return man in the league. The Bears played very well against a team who really shouldn't have even been in the playoffs, the Seahawks last week, and I don't think that Cutler will be able to get away from the pressure the Green Bay linebackers will impose upon him. Then, Aaron Rodgers has been so good in each of his three playoff games, garnering over a 100 quarterback rating in each of those games. Although nobody really knows how a quarterback rating is put together, we all know that over a 100 is good, hence go with the Packers.
Pick: Green Bay 24-20
New York Jets at Pittsburgh
These two teams met in week 15, with the Jets escaping 22-17. The key component in that game though is that Pittsburgh didn't have a game changing player, Troy Polamalu. To give you an idea of how valuable Polamalu is, Pittsburgh has won nearly 70 percent of its games when he is in the lineup, and has only won half when he is absent from the lineup. That is a game changer. Polamalu can wreak havoc on a quarterback by lining up in so many different areas of the field and can jump over both lines to get to a quarterback. The Jets have been keeping quiet this week, which is odd, since they spoke loudly last week against their big rivals, the Patriots, so I don't know what Rex Ryan has planned for his team, but it will be a tough battle. Expect a game like last week's Steelers-Ravens one, where momentum can shift at the drop of a hat on a turnover, and expect it to be very hard hitting and grind it out football. This is going to be a game where Ben Roethlisberger will need to carry his team down the field and this time he will make the winning score, unlike week 15.
Pick: Pittsburgh 28, New York 26
Green Bay at Chicago
This is an excellent game between divisional rivals, both possess a great defense, and both have one part of their offense which is suspect at times. The Bears greatest weakness is Jay Cutler, who hasn't been very Cutler-like the past few games, as he has a better than 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio in the games the Bears have won, which is very key if the Bears are to win this game. The key for the Packers is to get a running game going well with James Starks, and allow him to chew up clock time. Another key for the Packers is to kick it away from Devin Hester, the best return man in the league. The Bears played very well against a team who really shouldn't have even been in the playoffs, the Seahawks last week, and I don't think that Cutler will be able to get away from the pressure the Green Bay linebackers will impose upon him. Then, Aaron Rodgers has been so good in each of his three playoff games, garnering over a 100 quarterback rating in each of those games. Although nobody really knows how a quarterback rating is put together, we all know that over a 100 is good, hence go with the Packers.
Pick: Green Bay 24-20
New York Jets at Pittsburgh
These two teams met in week 15, with the Jets escaping 22-17. The key component in that game though is that Pittsburgh didn't have a game changing player, Troy Polamalu. To give you an idea of how valuable Polamalu is, Pittsburgh has won nearly 70 percent of its games when he is in the lineup, and has only won half when he is absent from the lineup. That is a game changer. Polamalu can wreak havoc on a quarterback by lining up in so many different areas of the field and can jump over both lines to get to a quarterback. The Jets have been keeping quiet this week, which is odd, since they spoke loudly last week against their big rivals, the Patriots, so I don't know what Rex Ryan has planned for his team, but it will be a tough battle. Expect a game like last week's Steelers-Ravens one, where momentum can shift at the drop of a hat on a turnover, and expect it to be very hard hitting and grind it out football. This is going to be a game where Ben Roethlisberger will need to carry his team down the field and this time he will make the winning score, unlike week 15.
Pick: Pittsburgh 28, New York 26
Friday, January 14, 2011
Divisional Playoffs!
This weekends round of divisional playoffs is the most intriguing in recent memory, as it features rematches in all four games, including a rubber match in the AFC, with divisional games occurring here. This is the first time in the history of the playoffs. The only playoff game this weekend which doesn't scream good is the one with the Seahawks obviously, as they will still have a losing record heading into the game against the Bears.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
This is one of those divisional games which is screaming tight battle, down to the wire, hard hitting, and grind it out football. Both games earlier in the season were decided by three points. These rivals are also very much rivals, as the Steelers lead the all time series, 9-8. The first game also had Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, who was still serving his four game suspension for violating the league's conduct policy. Then, the second game was a defensive struggle right up until the end, when Troy Polamalu forced a fumble from Joe Flacco and Pittsburgh scored on their ensuing possession. I'm expecting something very similar to happen in this game, where Polamalu, or some other member of the Pittsburgh defense makes a big play and Pittsburgh will win and move onto the AFC Championship game.
Pick: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 13
Green Bay at Atlanta
The game earlier this season was in Atlanta, and Green Bay still only lost by three. Green Bay found a running game with James Starks last week versus a porous Eagle defense. If Starks can keep that up, Green Bay could run away with this game. Too bad I think Green Bay found lightning in a bottle last week with Starks. The Pack will have to rely on Aaron Rodgers arm to get them past Atlanta. Plus, they'll have to find a way to beat down Michael Turner, and stop the Falcons running game. Turner is a pounding running back with legs which are very powerful and getting them stopped will be vital. Green Bay has been on a roll, winning three in a row, and Aaron Rodgers has continued to put up amazing numbers since coming back after his second concussion. I'm thinking the roles will be reversed this game, as Green Bay kicks the winning field goal with a minute or less remaining.
Pick: Green Bay 24, Atlanta 23
Seattle at Chicago
Seattle won the earlier meeting of these two clubs 23-20. Granted, this was before Chicago's bye week, when they really started to get going. Prior to the bye, Chicago had losses to both this Seattle team and Washington. Chicago then went 7-2 down the stretch, to win the NFC North and secure the number two seed in the NFC. Seattle is a tough team to figure out, as they lost three straight heading into week 17, then they won against St. Louis and New Orleans to move on to Chicago. Seattle could conceivably make another run like they did last week and win with their "us against the world" attitude. Seattle will need to make Jay Cutler turn into the old Jay Cutler and force him to throw picks like nobody's business in his first playoff start along with stopping Matt Forte, who is having a great third year. This is Cutler's first playoff start in his career, so that is worth noting, while it is Hasselbeck's 11th. This could be like Arizona's Super Bowl run in the 2008-09 playoffs, where nobody thinks they will do anything, and they just keep winning. I'm not expecting Seattle to go to the Super Bowl, but I think they can win again.
Pick: Seattle 31, Chicago 23
New York Jets at New England
The Jets have been running their mouths the entire week, which is their style, and they may as well say all they can now, before they lose big like they did the last time against the Patriots in New England. I don't think it will quite be like the 45-3 blowout like it was in December, but I don't think it will be close. New England is seemingly on a mission like it was in 2007, when it ran out of fuel in the Super Bowl. This time, they have a much younger defense which is looking better and better as each game progresses, and Tom Brady is performing at maybe the best level of his career. The Jets barely beat a weakened Colts team last week, and it took a game winning drive at the end to set up a game winning field goal as time expired. Plus, Bill Belichick wants to continue to rub it in against their division "rivals." The series has not been close recently, with New England winning 12 of the past 16 meetings.
Pick: New England 39, New York Jets 10
Check back next week when I'll preview the Conference Championships.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
This is one of those divisional games which is screaming tight battle, down to the wire, hard hitting, and grind it out football. Both games earlier in the season were decided by three points. These rivals are also very much rivals, as the Steelers lead the all time series, 9-8. The first game also had Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, who was still serving his four game suspension for violating the league's conduct policy. Then, the second game was a defensive struggle right up until the end, when Troy Polamalu forced a fumble from Joe Flacco and Pittsburgh scored on their ensuing possession. I'm expecting something very similar to happen in this game, where Polamalu, or some other member of the Pittsburgh defense makes a big play and Pittsburgh will win and move onto the AFC Championship game.
Pick: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 13
Green Bay at Atlanta
The game earlier this season was in Atlanta, and Green Bay still only lost by three. Green Bay found a running game with James Starks last week versus a porous Eagle defense. If Starks can keep that up, Green Bay could run away with this game. Too bad I think Green Bay found lightning in a bottle last week with Starks. The Pack will have to rely on Aaron Rodgers arm to get them past Atlanta. Plus, they'll have to find a way to beat down Michael Turner, and stop the Falcons running game. Turner is a pounding running back with legs which are very powerful and getting them stopped will be vital. Green Bay has been on a roll, winning three in a row, and Aaron Rodgers has continued to put up amazing numbers since coming back after his second concussion. I'm thinking the roles will be reversed this game, as Green Bay kicks the winning field goal with a minute or less remaining.
Pick: Green Bay 24, Atlanta 23
Seattle at Chicago
Seattle won the earlier meeting of these two clubs 23-20. Granted, this was before Chicago's bye week, when they really started to get going. Prior to the bye, Chicago had losses to both this Seattle team and Washington. Chicago then went 7-2 down the stretch, to win the NFC North and secure the number two seed in the NFC. Seattle is a tough team to figure out, as they lost three straight heading into week 17, then they won against St. Louis and New Orleans to move on to Chicago. Seattle could conceivably make another run like they did last week and win with their "us against the world" attitude. Seattle will need to make Jay Cutler turn into the old Jay Cutler and force him to throw picks like nobody's business in his first playoff start along with stopping Matt Forte, who is having a great third year. This is Cutler's first playoff start in his career, so that is worth noting, while it is Hasselbeck's 11th. This could be like Arizona's Super Bowl run in the 2008-09 playoffs, where nobody thinks they will do anything, and they just keep winning. I'm not expecting Seattle to go to the Super Bowl, but I think they can win again.
Pick: Seattle 31, Chicago 23
New York Jets at New England
The Jets have been running their mouths the entire week, which is their style, and they may as well say all they can now, before they lose big like they did the last time against the Patriots in New England. I don't think it will quite be like the 45-3 blowout like it was in December, but I don't think it will be close. New England is seemingly on a mission like it was in 2007, when it ran out of fuel in the Super Bowl. This time, they have a much younger defense which is looking better and better as each game progresses, and Tom Brady is performing at maybe the best level of his career. The Jets barely beat a weakened Colts team last week, and it took a game winning drive at the end to set up a game winning field goal as time expired. Plus, Bill Belichick wants to continue to rub it in against their division "rivals." The series has not been close recently, with New England winning 12 of the past 16 meetings.
Pick: New England 39, New York Jets 10
Check back next week when I'll preview the Conference Championships.
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